Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2, Prov.) Preliminary GDP data suggesting that Mexico escaped a technical recession by the skin of its teeth in Q2 don’t change the bigger picture that the economy remains very weak. This supports our non... 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 3.8% y/y, makes an interest rate cut at the central bank’s next policy meeting on 15th August increasingly likely. 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 3.3% y/y in the middle of July surely seals the deal on a rate cut at the Copom meeting next week. Moreover, with underlying price pressures weak, policymakers are... 23rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The much larger-than-expected drop in Mexican industrial production, of 2.1% m/m, reinforces our downbeat view on the economy, and is likely to push the central bank towards cutting interest rates at... 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Jun.) The sharp drop in Brazilian inflation to 3.4% in June, which took it below the central bank’s target, suggests that policymakers will soon start to ease monetary policy. Barring any major hiccups with... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The large drop in Mexican inflation, from 4.3% y/y in May to 3.9% y/y in June, is likely to be followed by another sizeable fall this month. That should see Banxico inch further towards interest rate... 9th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (May) The fall in Brazilian industrial production in May, of 0.2% m/m, adds to the evidence that the economy fell into a technical recession in Q2. With inflation also easing, an interest rate cut seems... 2nd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jun.) The sharp fall in Brazilian mid-month inflation, from 4.9% y/y in May to 3.8% y/y in June, coming alongside positive newsflow surrounding pension reform, tips the balance towards a 25bp cut in the... 25th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected expansion in Mexican industrial production in April, of 1.5% m/m, suggests that, after a disappointing Q1, GDP growth will recover in Q2. 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) The small decline in Mexican inflation, to 4.3% y/y in May, confirms that the headline rate has passed its peak. Even so, concerns about the prospect of US tariffs, as well as the recent credit rating... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile CPI (May) The fall in Brazilian inflation, to 4.7% y/y in May, is set to be followed by further declines, taking it below the central bank’s target. So long as the economy recovers from its recent weak patch... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) The weakness of Brazilian industrial production, which expanded by just 0.3% m/m in April, was in part a result of a fall in output in the mining sector, which should unwind in the coming months. Even... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2019) The 0.2% q/q fall in Brazilian GDP in Q1 was, in part, the result of temporary factors including a sharp drop in iron ore output. But the early signs are that growth in Q2 has been very weak too and... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May) The softer-than-expected mid-month inflation Brazilian figure for May, of 4.9% y/y, suggests that the headline rate has now peaked, and we think it will fall back below the central bank’s target in... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) Having risen in the last few months, Mexican inflation was unchanged at 4.4% y/y in the first half of May, supporting our view that the recent increase in the headline rate was temporary. We expect... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q1) The slowdown in Chilean GDP growth from 3.6% y/y in Q4 to 1.6% y/y in Q1 was due to weak domestic demand and problems in the copper sector, which hit exports. And while the consensus expects a strong... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read