Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) Given rising inflation and the sharp fall in the peso, we no longer think that the Bank of Mexico will cut its key rate this month in line with the Fed. Policymakers will probably leave rates on hold. 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2019) Brazil’s relatively strong 0.5% q/q GDP growth rate recorded in Q4 masked a sharp loss of momentum late in the quarter. Taken together with growing headwinds from the effects of the coronavirus more... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.) Stronger headline inflation in early February was mostly due to food prices; core inflation remained stable. Even so, we think that the persistence of above-target inflation will limit policymakers to... 24th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Peru GDP (Q4 2019) We think that the slowdown in Peruvian GDP growth from 3.0% y/y in Q3 to 1.8% y/y in Q4 will be temporary and expect that the economy will recover more quickly than most expect this year. 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb. 2020) The modest fall in Brazilian inflation in the middle of the month, to 4.2% y/y, confirmed that it has passed its peak. The headline rate is likely to edge down further over the course of the year... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4 2019) Colombian GDP growth ticked down to 3.4% y/y in Q4 from 3.5% y/y in Q3 and we think that growth will slow further this year. The consensus expectations for growth look too optimistic. 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) Mexico’s industrial sectors weakened again in December, capping a poor year and creating a weak starting point for 2020. The available surveys suggest that conditions remained difficult more recently. 11th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Jan.) The rise in Mexican inflation from 2.8% y/y in December to 3.2% y/y in January supports our view that, while the central bank will cut interest rates further, the easing cycle won’t go as far as... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Dec.) The larger-than-expected 0.7% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in December provides further evidence that the economic recovery was stumbling at the end of last year. This reinforces our... 4th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The above-target Brazilian inflation reading for the middle of January reduces the chance of an interest rate cut next month. Mexican inflation also rose, supporting our expectation of a short easing... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Dec.) & Mexico Ind. Production (Nov.) Strong Brazilian inflation – which jumped to 4.3% y/y last month – and signs that the economy is on a firmer footing, suggest that the further interest rate cuts some still expect in early 2020 won’t... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico CPI (Dec.) & Brazil Ind. Production (Nov.) Mexican inflation eased again in December, supporting our view that policymakers will continue to cut rates this year. Elsewhere, the larger-than-expected 1.2% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile CPI (Dec.) The rise in Chilean inflation to 3.0% y/y in December is likely to be followed by a further increase to around 4.0% y/y over the first half of this year. That said, this period of above-target... 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Dec.) The fall in Mexican inflation to 2.6% y/y in the first two weeks of December, from 3.0% in the full month of November, will pave the way for Banxico to continue its easing cycle in the coming months... 23rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Dec.) The sharp rise in Brazilian inflation, to 3.9% y/y in the first half of December, from 2.7% a month earlier rules out another interest rate cut at the next central bank meeting in February. 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The fall in Mexican manufacturing output in October was largely due to the GM strike, but even if this were excluded the latest figures show weakness across key industrial sectors. This strengthens... 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
