Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb. 2021) The 0.7% m/m drop in Brazilian industrial production was led by the auto sector, which may reflect supply shortages but also weakening demand following the end of emergency income support. With the... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar. 2021) The surge in Brazilian inflation to 5.5% y/y in the middle of March – its highest rate in over four years – has further to run and the headline rate looks set to reach 7.5% y/y in Q2. That will result... 25th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar.) The continued rise in Mexican inflation to 4.1% y/y over the first half of March, above the central bank’s 2-4% target range, will almost certainly put an end to Banxico’s easing cycle. We think that... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q4 2020) The 6.8% q/q rise in Chile’s GDP in Q4 shows the economy headed into 2021 with significant momentum. And the outlook is bright given the country’s swift vaccine progress. As a result, we are revising... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) The small 0.2% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in January masks a concerning 0.5% m/m fall in manufacturing output. The sector will have also fared poorly in February following the... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Feb. 2021) The jump in Brazilian inflation to a stronger-than-expected 5.2% last month makes it almost certain that Copom will begin a tightening cycle next week. While we’ve pencilled in a 50bp rate hike (to 2... 11th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further rise in Mexico’s headline inflation, to 3.8% y/y in February, was largely driven by higher fuel prices. This trend has further to run in the coming months which, alongside the recent... 9th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan. 2021) The 0.4% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in January, down from 0.8% m/m in December, confirms that momentum in the sector is easing. Moreover, with services sector being harder hit by the... 5th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2020) The larger-than-expected 3.2% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q4 confirms that the economy had one of the better performances in Latin America last year. But there is strong evidence to suggest that the... 3rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Mid-Month CPI (Feb) The rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.6% y/y, in the middle of this month shifts the balance a bit further an interest rate hike at the next Copom meeting in March, but there are reasons to think that... 24th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4 2020) The robust 6.0% q/q rise in Colombia’s GDP in Q4 marks a solid end to 2020, but the recovery will slow sharply in Q1 due to the tightening of restrictions. 15th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) The small 0.1% m/m rise in Mexico’s industrial production in December confirms that the economy lost significant momentum at the end of last year. The renewed economic weakness may help to convince... 11th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Jan.) The rise in Mexican inflation in January makes Thursday’s interest rate decision a close call, although we still think a 25bp rate cut is more likely than not. Meanwhile, the further increase in... 9th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Dec. 2020) The robust 0.9% m/m rise in Brazil’s industrial production caps off a strong recovery in the sector over the second half of 2020. But the unwinding of fiscal stimulus and the rampant second wave of... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4 Prov.) The solid 3.1% q/q rise in Mexico’s GDP in Q4 meant that the economy had recouped over 70% of its losses from the first half of 2020. However, the recent surge in new COVID-19 cases will cause the... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan. 2021) The above-target Brazilian mid-month inflation reading for January, of 4.3% y/y, is likely to be followed by a jump in the headline rate in the coming months, keeping Copom in hawkish mood. But while... 26th January 2021 · 2 mins read
