Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to cut rates to -1.0% Amid concerns about the sustainability of its large-scale asset purchases, the Bank of Japan now looks likely to rely increasingly on lowering the interest rate on central bank reserves to deliver... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Further cuts in interest rates likely to be required The introduction of negative interest rates at today’s BoJ meeting will likely be followed by further cuts in coming months. The upshot is that the yen should continue to weaken against the dollar. 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Slowdown in bank lending to continue Today’s Senior Loan Officer Survey showed that loan demand remained subdued last quarter. While the survey has not painted an accurate picture of credit conditions lately, it suggests that the recent... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The Bank of Japan has eased its collateral rules to free up additional JGBs. However, a shift in the composition of government debt away from Treasury bills and loans towards JGBs is providing a... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Pick up in part-time earnings not enough Part-time earnings have picked up speed in recent months. But they are still rising at a slower rate than a few years ago and would have to pick up much further in order for the Bank of Japan to meet... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Economy should have continued to recover in Q4 We took a break at the end of 2015 but Japan’s government statisticians didn’t. This Update recaps the key releases we missed. The main message is that November activity and spending data were weak... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan’s government really spending more than ever? At first sight, Japan’s budget plans suggest that the government is planning to loosen the purse strings next year. In fact, fiscal policy will probably be tightened again. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) An improvement in nominal GDP growth recently has prevented the ratio of private debt to output from rising, despite a rapid expansion in bank lending. This trend should continue for a while. 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still has more to do The policy tweaks the Bank of Japan announced today are mainly aimed at ensuring that the existing volume of asset purchases can be maintained rather than constituting a genuine expansion in stimulus... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Exemptions for food won’t dampen blow from sales tax hike The decision to exempt food from the sales tax hike due in 2017 will not make much difference to theblow it causes to economic momentum. It may however make an early election more likely. 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Are wages rising at a record pace? Despite suggestions that wages are now increasing at a record rate, wages have in fact barely increased at all this year. Looking ahead, we suspect that the upcoming spring wage negotiations will... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Stagnant wage demands another headwind to QQE The fact that Japan’s main trade union federation says that it will not demand stronger pay hikes in the upcoming wage negotiations than it did last time around provides another reason to think that... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will still have to ease more While the Bank of Japan does not seem to be overly concerned about the recent weakness in activity, we think price pressures will moderate in coming months as spare capacity has risen. Accordingly, we... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Bank lending continues to expand at a robust pace, but the increase in domestic credit is dwarfed by the surge in foreign claims, with their yen-value inflated by the weaker exchange rate. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Cautious Bank of Japan leaves door open for further easing The Bank of Japan pushed back the timing for reaching its 2% inflation target today and sees downside risks to economic activity. With underlying inflation likely to stall soon, we expect policymakers... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan can’t hide behind low potential growth With potential growth near zero, the occasional quarter of negative GDP growth in Japan is notaltogether surprising or necessarily a disaster. However, the point of the Bank of Japan’s... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
