Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Credit growth remains strong by past standards, and there are some signs that households’ appetite for borrowing has strengthened. We therefore think that household and corporate debt will continue to... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The depreciation of the yen has increased the weight on bank balance sheets of lending abroad. With profitability similar, but default rates lower than on domestic loans, we think that overseas... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will the government stop the yen from weakening further? Several commentators have expressed unease about yen weakness, with some even arguing that the government may intervene if the ongoing slide persists. But a weaker yen is a key transmission channel in... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Butter meltdown highlights policy failures Japan’s butter shortage is the result of agricultural policy failures. It should strengthen the argument that agreement to scale back protectionist measures in the ongoing talks on the Trans-Pacific... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to step up pace of easing in October The Bank of Japan’s more upbeat economic assessment today suggests that the introduction of more stimulus as early as July is off the table. However, we remain convinced that the prospect of prolonged... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Banks report slowing loan demand but aggregate credit growth nonetheless remains strong as lower yields have encouraged firms to turn to the bond market for funding. 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Should the BoJ scrap its monetary base target? We are not convinced that the BoJ’s decision to use the monetary base as its operational target limits the effectiveness of QQE, as some are suggesting. More problematic is that the reduction in real... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will have to ease more before long The Bank of Japan today decided to leave policy settings unchanged, thus ignoring signs that its efforts to lift inflation towards the 2% target are stalling. However, we think that the threat of... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What explains the plunge in import volumes last month? The plunge in import volumes in March likely reflects seasonal distortions rather than a sudden collapse in domestic demand. The upshot is that imports should rebound in April and the trade balance... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The Bank of Japan now owns more Japanese government bonds than private pension funds and insurance companies combined. However, with the government pension fund continuing to shed bonds, and usage of... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still likely to expand QQE later this month The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today and Governor Kuroda indicated that the Board doesn’t see the need for additional stimulus at the moment. However, Mr Kuroda has a record of... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Revised data show that wage growth remains anaemic Revised data show that the base pay hikes agreed upon in last year’s spring wage negotiations were not reflected in aggregate base pay, providing another headwind to higher inflation. 7th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) While corporate debt increased at the fastest pace in years last quarter, the increase has been more than offset by higher corporate assets. With corporate profits at record-highs, firms are well... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still likely to ease preemptively next month Despite the recent run of stronger data, the Bank of Japan was no more upbeat on the economic outlook at today’s meeting than before. Consumer price inflation is likely to turn negative soon... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan’s electronics sector doomed? The travails of Japan’s electronics giants are not indicative of a general demise of the sector. In aggregate, the electronics industry is in fact doing quite well. 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Should we be worried about the negative saving rate? We are not too worried about evidence suggesting that Japanese households now have a negative saving rate. Thanks to a shrinking fiscal deficit and high corporate saving, Japan remains a net lender to... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
