Japan Economics Update Will the primary budget be in surplus in 2020? Japan’s budget deficit has fallen sharply in recent years but improvements are now likely to slow, with the result that the government will struggle to achieve its target of a primary budget surplus... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan remains too upbeat about inflation The BoJ upgraded its assessment of the economy at today’s meeting but lowered its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year. We think that the Bank remains too optimistic about inflation and... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will Japan and the US sign a free trade agreement? High-level discussions with the US today have revived talk in Japan of a bilateral trade deal that could in principle generate sizeable productivity gains for Japan and make up for the US abandoning... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) Bank lending is rising at the fastest pace since 2009, led by non-manufacturing firms. A combination of record-low bank lending rates and extremely loose bank lending attitudes has fuelled the credit... 17th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Does QQE expose the Bank of Japan to large losses? A sharp rise in interest rates could result in large losses for the Bank of Japan if it were ever to sell its huge stock of government bonds. But the Bank is keeping a lid on bond yields and will... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Services set to pull inflation higher A recent acceleration in producer prices of services combined with more upbeat survey evidence suggest that the prices that consumers pay for services will soon start picking up again. However, there... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Departure of BoJ hawks suggests policy will remain loose The impending exit of two hawks from the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board suggests that calls for the Bank to scale back policy support will diminish. The Bank is likely to reduce the volume of its asset... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) Aggregate private sector debt rose the most on record in Q4 on the back of plunging funding costs. While household and corporate debt are rising again relative to output, the level of indebtedness... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan unlikely to tighten anytime soon The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today as widely anticipated and Governor Kuroda remained cautious about the prospect of hitting the inflation target. While the consensus is... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tokyo Olympics unlikely to provide major boost to economy Public construction activity for the 2020 Olympic Games should pick up next year, providing a boost to growth. However, the impact on aggregate economic activity will be modest. 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update More still needed to lower public debt ratio The surge in nominal GDP since the launch of Abenomics reflects a number of one-off factors whose impact has started to fade. While a smaller budget deficit should keep the ratio of public debt to GDP... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Despite record-low bank lending rates and extraordinarily loose credit conditions, growth in bank lending has not picked up since the launch of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing. One consequence is... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan unlikely to tighten anytime soon The BoJ left policy settings unchanged today and lifted its GDP forecasts for the next two years. Even though we expect inflation to approach the 2% inflation target next year, we doubt that the Bank... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ poised to scale back bond purchases The Bank of Japan appears to have reduced the number of short-term JGB auctions it conducts this month, paving the way for a reduction in the volume of purchases this year. However, an increase in the... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Corporate debt affordability remains extraordinarily high, as corporate profit margins have rebounded and borrowing costs have continued to decline. Firms have responded with higher corporate bond... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Government remains reluctant to spend The budget for the coming fiscal year foresees broadly neutral rather than expansionary fiscal policy. With supplementary spending for the current fiscal year barely larger than last year’s, the... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
