Japan Economics Update Is Finance Minister Aso the Bank of Japan’s new oracle? Finance Minister Aso has been downplaying the chances of further monetary stimulus. But given that Japan’s government has previously argued that “surprise” is a key element of effective monetary... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The doubling of the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet since the launch of QQE has contributed to a strong rise in the money supply and a pick-up in bank lending. With lending rates near record-lows, we... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling import prices create another headwind for the BoJ While the Bank of Japan remains upbeat about the prospects of hitting its 2% inflation target, the fact that non-energy import prices have just recorded the first fall since the launch of QQE... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to announce more easing by end of the month While the Bank of Japan today provided few indications that additional stimulus is imminent, weretain our forecast that policymakers will step up the pace of easing by the end of the month. 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Trans-Pacific Partnership deal positive for Abenomics Much of the focus in Japan in the run-up to the successful conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership talks was on agriculture and vehicles. In practice, the economic significance of the agreement in... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What’s behind the rebound in “core-core” inflation? A closely-watched measure of underlying inflation in Japan has rebounded recently, raising hopes that the Bank of Japan’s easing efforts are finally gaining traction. But most of the rebound in “core... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update New “arrows” don’t change the outlook for Japan’s economy Prime Minister Abe’s announcement of new targets does not alter the outlook for the economy. In the absence of tangible policies to boost productivity and stem the decline in the working-age... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Are the wages data misleading us? Some BoJ Board Members have cast doubt on the accuracy of the monthly wage data, which show tepid income growth. By contrast, we think these figures reflect the circumstances of Japan’s workers fairly... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Low interest rates and debt-to-income ratios suggest that Japan’s households and firms can continue to borrow as strongly as they have in recent months. 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Case for more BoJ stimulus increasingly compelling While the Bank of Japan stuck to its course today, as expected, lacklustre economic growth, a marked lack of wage pressure and falling inflation expectations are likely to force the Board to announce... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Nuclear restart not a game changer The impact of the gradual resumption of nuclear energy generation on Japan’s trade balance will be negligible. Nor should we expect a major fall in electricity prices. 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) Banks report sluggish loan demand, but lenders have underestimated the strength ofcredit growth since last year’s sales tax hike. We think that borrowing by householdsand firms will continue to... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plunge in oil prices will force BoJ to step up easing Further falls in crude oil prices are making it even harder for the Bank of Japan to hit its inflation target. Despite some sanguine comments from Prime Minister Abe today, we think these price falls... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan likely to ease policy in October While the Bank of Japan today decided to stick to its guns, the recent sharp slowdown in economic activity and the prospect of a prolonged period of near-zero inflation should soon convince... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update New inflation gauges do not alter the outlook for monetary policy The Bank of Japan has started to publish a wider set of inflation measures in its monthly report. With all of them showing inflation well below the 2% target, we think suggestions that this shift... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will have to step up pace of easing before long Despite some small adjustments, the Bank of Japan’s interim forecasts today reveal that policymakers remain upbeat about the outlook. But weak economic activity and the prospect of a prolonged period... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
