Japan Economics Update Case for more BoJ stimulus increasingly compelling While the Bank of Japan stuck to its course today, as expected, lacklustre economic growth, a marked lack of wage pressure and falling inflation expectations are likely to force the Board to announce... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Nuclear restart not a game changer The impact of the gradual resumption of nuclear energy generation on Japan’s trade balance will be negligible. Nor should we expect a major fall in electricity prices. 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) Banks report sluggish loan demand, but lenders have underestimated the strength ofcredit growth since last year’s sales tax hike. We think that borrowing by householdsand firms will continue to... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plunge in oil prices will force BoJ to step up easing Further falls in crude oil prices are making it even harder for the Bank of Japan to hit its inflation target. Despite some sanguine comments from Prime Minister Abe today, we think these price falls... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan likely to ease policy in October While the Bank of Japan today decided to stick to its guns, the recent sharp slowdown in economic activity and the prospect of a prolonged period of near-zero inflation should soon convince... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update New inflation gauges do not alter the outlook for monetary policy The Bank of Japan has started to publish a wider set of inflation measures in its monthly report. With all of them showing inflation well below the 2% target, we think suggestions that this shift... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will have to step up pace of easing before long Despite some small adjustments, the Bank of Japan’s interim forecasts today reveal that policymakers remain upbeat about the outlook. But weak economic activity and the prospect of a prolonged period... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Credit growth remains strong by past standards, and there are some signs that households’ appetite for borrowing has strengthened. We therefore think that household and corporate debt will continue to... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The depreciation of the yen has increased the weight on bank balance sheets of lending abroad. With profitability similar, but default rates lower than on domestic loans, we think that overseas... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will the government stop the yen from weakening further? Several commentators have expressed unease about yen weakness, with some even arguing that the government may intervene if the ongoing slide persists. But a weaker yen is a key transmission channel in... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Butter meltdown highlights policy failures Japan’s butter shortage is the result of agricultural policy failures. It should strengthen the argument that agreement to scale back protectionist measures in the ongoing talks on the Trans-Pacific... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to step up pace of easing in October The Bank of Japan’s more upbeat economic assessment today suggests that the introduction of more stimulus as early as July is off the table. However, we remain convinced that the prospect of prolonged... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Banks report slowing loan demand but aggregate credit growth nonetheless remains strong as lower yields have encouraged firms to turn to the bond market for funding. 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Should the BoJ scrap its monetary base target? We are not convinced that the BoJ’s decision to use the monetary base as its operational target limits the effectiveness of QQE, as some are suggesting. More problematic is that the reduction in real... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will have to ease more before long The Bank of Japan today decided to leave policy settings unchanged, thus ignoring signs that its efforts to lift inflation towards the 2% target are stalling. However, we think that the threat of... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What explains the plunge in import volumes last month? The plunge in import volumes in March likely reflects seasonal distortions rather than a sudden collapse in domestic demand. The upshot is that imports should rebound in April and the trade balance... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
