Japan Economics Update Further stimulus still eventually needed The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today as widely expected. While a more upbeat economic outlook suggests that additional easing is not imminent, we think that it will still eventually... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What impact will the delay in the sales tax hike have? The direct impact of Prime Minister Abe’s decision to delay next year’s sales tax hike is to boost the outlook for growth and also for underlying inflation, though headline inflation will of course be... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The latest money supply figures have been encouraging, but we expect the slowdown in the housing market to weigh on loan growth in coming months. 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Talk of snap election lifts markets A snap election could have the virtue of giving the government a stronger mandate as it struggles to push ahead with structural reform. But it would not be a long-term positive if coupled with a delay... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Coordinated policy moves raise likelihood of sales tax hike The Bank of Japan’s decision on Friday to step up its pace of asset purchases has raised the chance that the sales tax will be increased again next year, but the decision is not yet a foregone... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Asset shortage no constraint on QQE Despite a significant acceleration in the pace of JGB purchases, a shortage of available assets will not pose a constraint on QQE anytime soon. 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ sets stage for further weakening of yen It always looked likely that the Bank of Japan would be forced to step up its pace of easing but the change of tack has come sooner than the market (or we) had expected. Given the recent downward... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Surge in consumption tax revenue yet to come Amid questions over the government’s commitment to the planned second consumption tax hike, the positive impact of the first hike on revenue is already being felt: Japan’s budget deficit has fallen to... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) While bank lending continues to expand robustly, credit in aggregate is growing less rapidly. In fact, household debt reached a fresh low relative to output in Q2. 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Inflation still likely to moderate despite recent yen weakness The impact of the recent weakening of the yen on consumer prices will be dampened by lower crude oil prices. The upshot is that CPI inflation is still likely to moderate towards year-end rather than... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ not yet ready to expand stimulus With policy settings again left unchanged, the key development at today’s Bank of Japan meeting was policymakers’ acknowledgement of the recent sluggishness of the economy. However, we still think... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Loan growth has remained stable in recent months though banks were predicting a sharp slowdown in lending following the sales tax hike. Nonetheless, we still think that borrowing will slow in the not... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Imminent easing by BoJ unlikely The BOJ left policy settings unchanged at today’s meeting, and provided no indications of imminent easing despite the recent weakness in the economy. However, inflation is likely to fall short of the... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Are part-time workers depressing wage growth? Growth in the share of part-time workers in Japan’s workforce is one factor being blamed for the recent sluggishness of wage growth. In reality, this shift has not had much of an impact on aggregate... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Why are Japan’s exports (still) not picking up? The continued sluggishness of exports in the face of significant yen depreciation reflects the fact that firms have been reluctant to lower prices, as well as weakness in global demand. But there are... 25th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Q2's inventory surge not necessarily a sign of trouble While large inventory build-ups usually spell trouble for future output, last quarter’s surge was largely the result of the one-off hit to demand from the sales tax hike. Overall, we still expect the... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
