Japan Data Response

Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Oct.) & Tokyo CPI (Nov.)

The surge in industrial production in October is a strong sign that the economy returned to growth in the fourth quarter. That suggests that October’s weakening in the labour market data won’t be...

30th November 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Retail Sales (Oct.)

The rebound in consumer spending in October suggests that private consumption returned to growth in the fourth quarter. That means that the contraction in GDP in the third quarter was just a blip.

29th November 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Consumer Prices (Oct.)

The jump in headline inflation in October reflected a boost from fresh food and energy prices that won’t last. However, we expect overall inflation to settle around 1% over coming months as price...

22nd November 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

External trade (Oct.)

The continued widening of the trade deficit suggests that net trade remained a drag on GDP growth in the fourth quarter. And while the recent strength in import growth probably won’t be sustained, the...

19th November 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

GDP (Q3 Preliminary)

The slump in output in the third quarter probably reflects a number of natural disasters and the economy almost certainly returned to growth in Q4. Indeed, the near-term outlook is positive as...

14th November 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.)

The acceleration in wage growth in September was driven by volatile bonus payments whereas growth in base pay slowed rather sharply. The final reading may yet show stronger growth in regular earnings...

7th November 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Industrial Production (Sep.)

The slump in industrial production in September means that Q3 GDP may have fallen by more than we had anticipated. But the recent weakness probably reflects the impact of natural disasters and a...

31st October 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Labour Market (Sep.)

The unemployment rate is the lowest it has been in a generation and we think it will fall further over the coming year. But wage growth probably won’t reach the rates required to meet the BoJ’s 2%...

30th October 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Retail Sales (Sep.)

The drop in retail sales in September suggests that consumer spending fell yet again in Q3. That’s one reason why we expect GDP to contract in Q3.

29th October 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Tokyo CPI (Oct.)

The jump in fresh food prices that lifted inflation in the Tokyo region to a ten-year high in October won’t be sustained. And with underlying inflation moderating yet again, the Bank of Japan’s 2%...

26th October 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.)

The pick-up in the manufacturing PMI in October, from 52.5 to 53.1, suggests that the likely slowdown in GDP growth in Q3 was just a blip.

24th October 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Consumer Prices (Sep.)

While underlying inflation didn’t rise any further in September, we think it will strengthen as firms pass on higher labour costs and domestic demand strengthens ahead of the tax hike. However...

19th October 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

External Trade (Sep.)

Net exports probably remained a drag on GDP growth in the third quarter. It now looks likely that economic activity came to a standstill in Q3.

18th October 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Machinery Orders (Aug.)

The continued surge in machinery orders in August suggests that business investment may have been stronger in Q3 than we had anticipated. Even so, we still expect a marked slowdown in Q3 GDP growth.

10th October 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Aug.)

The strongest rise in regular earnings since 1997 should be followed by even stronger gains in coming months as the labour market tightens further.

5th October 2018 · 1 min read