Japan Data Response Household Spending (Mar.) The fall in household spending in March suggests that private consumption dipped last quarter. And with other areas of demand broadly flat, we reiterate our forecast that GDP contracted by 0.1% q/q... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) We suspect that the recent deterioration in consumer sentiment reflects the impact of rising food prices. Either way, the survey still points to a rebound in spending on durable goods. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Mar.) & Tokyo CPI (Apr.) The slump in industrial production last quarter suggests that GDP shrank in Q1. Meanwhile, price pressures have started to moderate again even though the labour market remains very tight. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The manufacturing PMI suggests that activity in the sector remains healthy but firms are getting increasingly concerned about the outlook for external demand. 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation ended the last fiscal year well below the Bank of Japan’s forecast for the current fiscal year and the Bank will have to lower its projections yet again. 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Mar.) Distortions related to the Lunar New Year unwound in March, but we estimate that net trade still turned into a drag on GDP growth last quarter. 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Feb.) The continued rise in machinery orders in February is a positive sign but we still expect business investment to fall in Q1. However, the medium-term outlook for capital spending remains positive. 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Mar.) The Economy Watchers Survey didn’t improve much in March and still points to subdued growth in both industrial production and consumer spending. 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The recent volatility in global stock markets has undermined households’ confidence in their personal wealth. But this doesn’t seem to affect their willingness to spend much. 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Feb.) Base pay rose the most in two decades at the start of the year which indicates that the tight labour market is finally starting to create noticeable cost pressures. Meanwhile, the renewed slump in... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that growth slowed last quarter. Nonetheless, staff shortages have continued to intensify and price pressures are strengthening. 2nd April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Tokyo CPI (Mar.) The rebound in industrial production in February wasn’t strong enough to prevent a slump in output last quarter and we reiterate our forecast that GDP shrank in Q1. Meanwhile, the labour market... 30th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The muted increase in retail sales in February leaves Q1 on track for the sharpest fall since 2014’s sales tax hike. However, the figures haven’t been a great guide to developments in private... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Underlying inflation climbed to a 20-month high in February but the recent strengthening of the exchange rate suggests that it won’t rise much further. 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) While the manufacturing PMI weakened in March, it remains consistent with solid gains in industrial production. However, the hard data suggest that output will fall this quarter. 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Feb.) Seasonal swings related to Chinese New Year pushed the trade balance into the red in February. However, we suspect that these moves will reverse in March. 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
