Japan Data Response

Labour Market & Activity (Aug.) & Tokyo CPI (Sep.)

Today’s activity data showed a rebound in August but that won’t prevent a slowdown in GDP growth in Q3. The labour market remains tight and price pressures in the capital have strengthened further.

28th September 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep.)

The continued increase in the manufacturing PMI in September suggests that industrial activity should soon start to strengthen again.

21st September 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Consumer Prices (Aug.)

Underlying inflation climbed to a four-month high in August and should pick up further ahead of next year’s sales tax hike. But price pressures will weaken once the tax has been raised and the BoJ’s 2...

21st September 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

External Trade (Aug.)

Import volumes seem to have outpaced export volumes yet again in August which supports our view that net trade remained a drag on Q3 GDP growth.

19th September 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Machinery Orders (Jul.)

Even though machinery orders jumped in July, the recent fall in capital goods shipments suggests that a slowdown in business investment in the third quarter will be hard to avoid.

13th September 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

GDP (Q2 Revised)

Revised data show that growth in Q2 was stronger than initially reported. But the available data suggest that activity slowed in Q3 and we reiterate our forecast that growth will be just 1% this year.

10th September 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jul.)

We wouldn’t read too much into the slowdown in wage growth in July as it was driven by volatile bonus payments. Base pay continues to grow at a healthy pace. We expect wage growth to strengthen a bit...

7th September 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Capital Spending (Q2)

Today’s capital spending data suggest that business investment was much stronger last quarter than initially reported. This points to an upward revision to GDP growth in next week’s second estimate.

3rd September 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Jul.) & Tokyo CPI (Aug.)

The third consecutive decline in industrial production in July suggests that growth will slow in Q3. Meanwhile, the tight labour market is starting to boost price pressures.

31st August 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Retail Sales (Jul.)

While retail sales values edged up in July, sales volumes declined. The upshot is that private consumption started Q3 on a soft note.

30th August 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Consumer Prices (Jul.)

Consumer price gains remain driven by volatile fresh food and energy inflation while underlying inflation remains subdued. Price pressures should strengthen ahead of next year’s sales tax hike but...

24th August 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Flash Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)

Even though the manufacturing PMI still points to robust gains in industrial production, there are signs that the prospect of a global trade war is weighing on external demand.

23rd August 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

External Trade (Jul.)

The deterioration in the trade balance in July reflects a combination of rising import volumes and higher energy prices. We expect crude oil prices to fall over the coming months so the trade balance...

16th August 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

GDP (Q2 Preliminary)

While GDP started expanding again in the second quarter, growth isn’t as vigorous as last year. With the economy running into capacity constraints, we think that activity will remain sluggish for now.

10th August 2018 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Machinery Orders (Jun.)

Even though machinery orders fell further in June, they still rose last quarter and we’ve pencilled in an increase in non-residential investment in tomorrow’s GDP release.

9th August 2018 · 1 min read