Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Mar.) Despite the rise in March’s core machinery orders, investment in machinery and transport equipment is likely to have fallen in the first quarter. Early indicators also suggest that orders will remain... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Apr.) While the trade deficit narrowed in April as exports have started to rebound, we think that the slump in import volumes in the first quarter will reverse before long. The upshot is that we expect net... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Preliminary) The surprising resilience of the economy at the start of the year means that GDP growth will be stronger this year than we had anticipated. It also suggests that the government will press ahead with... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) The recent slump in wage growth reflects sampling changes as well as falling working hours. Given the current level of the unemployment rate, wages should be growing by around 1% and we expect a... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Activity (Mar.) March’s activity data were weak and suggests that the contraction in Q1 GDP will be sharper than what we initially expected. And although the jump in the unemployment rate in March merely reversed... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Mar.) The renewed trade deficit in March is not an area of immediate concern and we think that net trade may have actually boosted GDP growth in Q1. The bigger picture, however, remains unchanged – the... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Feb.) Although core machinery orders rebounded in February, they are still likely to have fallen across the quarter. That suggests that business investment fell in Q1 and we think that it will remain weak... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Feb.) The recent slump in wage growth is hard to square with the tightness of the labour market. That said, we think that the unemployment rate will start to rise again soon. That means wage growth is... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) The Q1 Tankan revealed a sharp deterioration in activity at the start of the year. That suggests that the easing in capacity and staff shortages that started in manufacturing should soon spread to... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Activity (Feb.) February’s activity data don’t alter our view that GDP contracted in the first quarter and won’t rise at all this year. And while the labour market remains exceptionally tight, the weakness in... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Inflation remained flat in February and will probably start to slow over the coming months due to falling energy prices and moderating underlying price pressures. 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Feb.) The rebound in February’s exports was probably distorted by shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year. What’s more, the PMIs from Japan’s main trading partners suggest that exports will remain subdued... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jan.) The decline in machinery orders in January is another signal that business investment will be weak in Q1, and possibly tip GDP into another contraction. 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) & Capital Spending (Q4) The unemployment rate edged up in January and with GDP growth set to remain soft, we think it will creep higher next year. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The sharp falls in industrial production and retail sales in January suggest that the economy slowed sharply at the start of 2019. And the deterioration in business confidence means that a rapid... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The drag from slumping fresh food inflation will subside soon but headline inflation will still hover around 0.5% over the coming months. 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
