Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The continued sharp fall in the manufacturing PMI in February adds to the evidence that Japan’s economy is losing steam rapidly and suggests that GDP growth will remain weak for now. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jan.) The renewed widening of the trade deficit in January suggests that net trade remained a drag on GDP growth in the first quarter and we think that export growth will remain sluggish this year. 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4) Japan’s economy returned to growth in Q4 but its performance over the past year has been poor. Domestic demand will get a lift ahead of October’s sales tax hike but that sugar-high won’t be sustained. 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Dec.) The sharp fall in December’s labour force and employment followed unusually strong gains in previous months and should not be a cause for concern. However, the unemployment rate may be close to a... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The jump in industrial production in the fourth quarter points to a strong rebound in GDP. But the worsening of the business surveys suggests that a renewed slowdown at the start of this year is... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The strong rise in December’s retail sales values suggests that private consumption growth in the fourth quarter could slightly exceed our expectations. And as consumers bring forward spending ahead... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Combined with the recent fall in Reuters’ manufacturing Tankan, the slump in the manufacturing PMI in January suggests that the growth outlook for Japan has deteriorated. While we still expect... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Dec.) The slump in export volumes in December probably overstated the weakness in external demand. Even so, we expect export growth to slow this year. 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The sharp fall in inflation in December in part reflects temporary factors that will reverse soon. But the bigger picture is that underlying price pressures will remain weak for the foreseeable future... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Nov.) The stagnation in machinery orders in November suggests that business investment wasn’t the main driver of the likely rebound in Q4 GDP. But we still expect capital spending to rise at a strong pace... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Nov.) The pick-up in wage growth in November has probably further to run as the unemployment rate declines ahead of the sales tax hike. But wages may not rise fast enough to meet the BoJ’s 2% inflation... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The recent slump in crude oil prices means that the slowdown in inflation in November has further to run. And underlying inflation may not climb much above 0.5% even if domestic demand strengthens... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Nov.) The slump in export values in November suggests that growth in export volumes will continue to fall short of growth in import volumes in the fourth quarter. And the recent weakening in external demand... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) The Q4 Tankan survey was better than most had anticipated and adds to the evidence that the economy has turned the corner. Meanwhile, firms are reporting mounting difficulties finding staff which... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Oct.) The rise in machinery orders in October was weaker than anticipated, but orders still point to rising business investment in Q4. That suggests that the slump in Q3 GDP will be reversed in the fourth... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q3 Revised) While the economy contracted even more than most had anticipated in the third quarter, we expect GDP growth to return to trend next year. 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
