Global Markets Update Trade may trump rates as a driver of the US dollar Judging by what has happened in recent months, President Trump’s attitude to global trade could remain a more important driver of the US dollar than the prospects for monetary policy in the US and... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will EM equities fall much further? The fact that emerging market (EM) equities have dropped a long way recently does not mean that they cannot fall much further, or that they are likely to perform much better than their US peers in the... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Where are the risks greatest for EM currencies? Although they have recovered a touch in the past couple of days, emerging market (EM) currencies have generally slumped against the dollar since mid-April. These falls shed light on which are most... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Worse to come for equities from protectionism Worries about protectionism have clearly weighed on equity markets in much of the world recently, and this will probably remain the case. What’s more, we suspect that protectionism concerns will start... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM corporate credit spreads have a lot further to rise Despite rising since January, emerging market (EM) corporate credit spreads remain very tight by past standards and relative to those of their counterparts elsewhere in the world. We think that this... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The longest bull market in US equities may end in 2019 The S&P 500 has not fallen by more than 20% since it began to climb after the last recession. As a result, the index has remained in a “bull market” that is about to become the longest ever... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update ECB purchases of Italian bonds might rise in October We suspect that, due to technical reasons, the ECB will increase its purchases of Italian government bonds in October. This might help to prevent yields from shooting up if Italy’s Government submits... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What the crisis in Turkey means for EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies have weakened against the dollar again today on worries about Turkey. While the pressure from this source might not last long, we think that the outlook is fairly poor... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Market implications of a “no deal” Brexit While we still assume that the UK and the EU will reach some sort of agreement over Brexit before the deadline next spring, there is clearly a significant possibility of no deal. In this scenario, we... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Buybacks just a temporary respite for Italian bonds The Italian Treasury’s latest debt buyback has helped to contain a rise in yields related to concerns over Budget plans. But such operations can offer only temporary respite. We see the Italian 10... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Lat Am equities won’t defy gravity for much longer Equities in China and other parts of Emerging Asia have slumped since mid-June. But unusually, those in Latin America have surged at the same time. There are already signs that the rally in Latin... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Next round of trade war likely to hit US assets harder Despite the resilience of the S&P 500 recently, US assets have not been altogether immune to trade tensions. And we think that they will come under a lot more pressure if, as seems increasingly likely... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the ECB try the twist? The very low level of long-term bond yields across the euro-zone suggests that there is no urgent need for the ECB to copy the US Fed’s “Operation Twist” by replacing short-dated securities with... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New, more pessimistic, forecasts for EM assets We argued at the start of this year that the good times for emerging market (EM) assets were likely to come to an end after a stellar 2017. As it happens, in many cases they have already fallen... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK financial markets still banking on a soft Brexit The betting markets are assigning a greater probability to an early general election in the UK in the wake of high-profile resignations in the Conservative Party since the Cabinet met at Chequers on... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone and US equity valuation: where’s the gap? Some argue that the stock market is less vulnerable in the euro-zone than in the US because its valuation is much lower. But the gap in their valuations is arguably negligible. 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
