Global Markets Update New, lower, end-2019 forecast for 10yr Treasury yield We have lowered our end-2019 forecast for the 10-year US Treasury yield by 25bp, to 2.25%. This reflects the fact that we no longer expect the FOMC to raise its target for the federal funds rate this... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Swedish krona unlikely to recover much lost ground Although the Swedish krona rose following stronger-than-expected GDP data on Thursday, we doubt that it will rebound much, as we are more dovish than investors about the outlook for monetary policy. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A lot of good news on trade is now discounted Although there is no one definitive measure, most evidence suggests that as much as half of last year’s hit to global markets from worries about a US-China trade war has now unwound. Given the type of... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Conditions not conducive to a “profitless” S&P 500 rally The S&P 500 has rebounded by more than 11% so far this year in response to a shift in Fed policy and a thawing of the US/China trade war. Nonetheless, a further rally is unlikely given the darkening... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update BTPs to underperform other peripheral bonds We think that safe-haven flows will keep government bond yields across the euro-zone’s “core” low this year. And, we wouldn’t be surprised if yields in Germany even turned negative as they did in 2016... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why we’re sticking to our guns on EM equities EM equities’ flying start to the year has continued this week, but we are sticking to our view that they will fall over 2019 as a whole, as the darkening outlook for the global economy takes its toll... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update ECB and SNB unlikely to put a floor under bond yields We doubt that German and Swiss government bond yields will drop much further. But if they do fall deep into negative territory, there probably won’t be much that the ECB or the SNB will be willing or... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Where to weather another storm in EM equities We think that the recent rebound in emerging market (EM) equities will prove temporary, as concerns about global growth intensify. We expect the healthcare and consumer staple sectors to be more... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Safe-haven flows to support the Swiss franc this year While the Swiss franc has not benefitted much from recent upheaval in markets, including yesterday’s sell-off in US equities, it has been very stable. We expect this to remain the case in 2019, as... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Less QT wouldn’t save the US stock market Although the S&P 500 has risen further since the FOMC’s latest meeting, we still expect the index to falter this year even if the Fed shrinks its stock of assets more slowly and by less than... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rally in EM local currency bonds likely to fizzle out This week’s flurry of EM central bank meetings will probably add to the signs that the shift towards tighter monetary policy in much of the emerging world is nearing an end. Even so, we doubt that the... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A dovish Fed won’t keep the US$ down if the S&P falls Although we expect the US federal funds rate to end 2020 lower than it is now, we don’t think that the dollar will decline this year. The reason is our bearish view of the global economy. 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rally in euro-zone equities unlikely to last We think that the recent rally in euro-zone equities will run out of steam. Although a trade deal between the US and China could give a boost to global share prices, including in the euro-zone, we... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Markets appear to be mispricing LatAm political risks We think that the reactions in bond markets to Brazil’s and Mexico’s new leaders have gone too far. Investors in Brazil look overly optimistic about President Bolsonaro’s ability to turn the public... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Turning even more bearish on the Australian dollar We have long forecast that the Australian dollar would weaken against the US dollar in 2019 owing to our bearish view of commodity prices and China’s economy. But changes to our outlook for monetary... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Outlook is not bright for euro-zone peripheral bonds We think that government bonds in the euro-zone “periphery” will fare quite poorly in the next two years – particularly in Italy and Greece – as growth disappoints and deficits overshoot expectations... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
