Global Markets Update Is the recent decline in EM credit spreads justified? The stripped spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global (which is comprised of sovereign dollar-denominated bonds) has continued to fall this year, and has rarely been lower in the post-financial crisis era... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Does it make sense to rotate into equities out of bonds? This month’s Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Fund Manager Survey revealed that respondents were the most overweight equities relative to government bonds since August 2014. This is not... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How far are US Treasury yields likely to rise? After some brief respite, US Treasuries have come under fire again. Indeed, the 10-year yield has now rebounded to its highest level since last spring. We expect its rise to continue this year, as the... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tougher times around the corner for EM dollar bonds Sentiment towards emerging market (EM) dollar bonds has remained remarkably positive recently. The spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global is around its lowest since 2014. Issuance has surged. And flows... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will a regulatory crackdown spell the end for Bitcoin? South Korea’s announcement that it plans to ban cryptocurrency exchanges has coincided with rumours that China is planning to enforce a complete ban on Bitcoin mining. Could this new wave of... 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Flying start to 2018 for EM equities not likely to last Although the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index of equities has hit the ground running again in 2018, we think that the rally will fizzle out before long. 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will 2018 be a last hurrah for the US dollar? We expect the dollar to stage a modest rebound against most other developed market currencies this year, as the contrast in the monetary policies of the Fed and other major central banks generally... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Key market calls for 2018 and beyond We are forecasting that the Fed will be a bit more hawkish this year than the markets appear to be envisaging. In our view, the US economy, which is already close to full capacity, will start to slow... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the FOMC meeting move the Treasury market? It is possible that there will be very little reaction in the Treasury market after the end of the FOMC meeting today. After all, the implied probability of a 25bp rate hike has been close to 100% for... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the weakness in the MSCI China Index spread? A couple of years ago, worries about China caused the last major correction in stock markets around the world. With the MSCI China Index plunging recently, could something similar be around the corner... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would a faltering US stock market spark contagion? The US stock market has now bounced back from a recent wobble. However, with the S&P 500 around a record high, it is still worth asking when the next significant and sustained correction might... 27th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Recent setback for the dollar should prove temporary We doubt that the fall in the dollar seen in the past few weeks will continue, especially as we think that the Fed will tighten by more than most anticipate next year. 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the US stock market in for a taxing time? It is tempting to attribute the 20% surge in the S&P 500 since the US elections last November to the prospect of tax reform. But while this may have played a role, it does not appear to have been the... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will CEE currencies continue to track the euro? We think that Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies and the euro will weaken against the dollar next year. But we judge that CEE currencies will fall by less, given the prospects for monetary... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are the best days for risky assets really over? Risky assets have come under some pressure for the first time since the summer, when they were rattled by rising tensions between the US and North Korea. Nonetheless, we still don’t think that a major... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How big a deal are oil prices for the MSCI EM Index? The recent increase in the price of oil has added further fuel to the rally in emerging market (EM) equities. Although we think that some of this support will unwind as oil prices slip back, we still... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
