Global Markets Update Will Bitcoin keep moving with risky assets? Bitcoin’s correlation with equity prices has strengthened recently, but we think that this will be just temporary. We still think that Bitcoin is essentially worthless, meaning that it is likely to... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The likely consequences of escalating trade tensions Aside from equities in the US and China, those in Korea, Taiwan and South Africa appear particularly exposed to a further deterioration in Sino-American trade relations. And IT, consumer discretionary... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are the IT sector’s best days behind it? After outperforming for much of the past year or so, the IT sector has led the falls in stock markets in the past couple of weeks. Is a sustained period of underperformance now likely? 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will EM credit spreads continue to rise? The spreads of emerging market (EM) sovereign dollar bonds have been edging up since their lows a couple of months ago, and we think that they have further to rise over the next two years. 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update S&P 500’s valuation is unlikely to cause its demise We think that the outlook for the US stock market is bleak. But unlike some who share this opinion, our pessimism is not rooted in a belief that the market is grossly overvalued and will inevitably... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How vulnerable is the S&P 500 to rising interest rates? The S&P 500 has tended to hold up well in the past when the Fed has tightened policy. But it has slid once the tightening has begun to take a toll on the economy. With this in mind, we don’t expect... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How would more protectionism affect the dollar? The reaction in currency markets to President Trump’s proposed tariffs on steel and aluminium suggests that investors are far more concerned that the duties represent the opening salvo of a trade war... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will politics put an end to the rally in Brazil’s equities? Brazil’s stock market has been the best-performing of any major economy this year, soaring by well over 10% despite the turmoil in global equities a few weeks ago. But we suspect that it will come... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Looser fiscal policy spells more trouble for Treasuries The deal done in Congress at the beginning of this month will potentially result in even larger federal budget deficits than those seen during Ronald Reagan’s time as president. This is a key reason... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the US-led recovery in global equity markets last? The US initially led the recovery in stock markets around the world from their falls of a few weeks ago. But the S&P 500 faltered a bit earlier this week, and we doubt that it will drive global... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update No swan song for the dollar We are abandoning our expectation that the dollar will have a last hurrah this year. We had previously expected it to stage a modest rebound against most other developed market currencies, as the... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sell-off underlines markets’ previous complacency The severity of any further sell-off in global financial markets may be limited by the general health of the global economy and the scope for policymakers to respond if necessary. Nonetheless, the... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the recent decline in EM credit spreads justified? The stripped spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global (which is comprised of sovereign dollar-denominated bonds) has continued to fall this year, and has rarely been lower in the post-financial crisis era... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Does it make sense to rotate into equities out of bonds? This month’s Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Fund Manager Survey revealed that respondents were the most overweight equities relative to government bonds since August 2014. This is not... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How far are US Treasury yields likely to rise? After some brief respite, US Treasuries have come under fire again. Indeed, the 10-year yield has now rebounded to its highest level since last spring. We expect its rise to continue this year, as the... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tougher times around the corner for EM dollar bonds Sentiment towards emerging market (EM) dollar bonds has remained remarkably positive recently. The spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global is around its lowest since 2014. Issuance has surged. And flows... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
