Global Markets Update EM equities not likely to hit the buffers soon The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index of equities set another record high on Tuesday, and is some way above its pre-global financial crisis peak. Although the MSCI Brazil Index – the fifth-largest... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM assets should cope well with scaling back of QE Emerging market (EM) assets have prospered this year despite the Fed continuing to raise rates. We think that they will also cope well as unconventional policy from several major central banks becomes... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the US yield curve continue to flatten? We expect the US Treasury yield curve to continue to flatten, as the Fed raises rates further. But we don’t think that the curve will begin to invert – and flag up the risk of a recession – until 2019... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will repatriated foreign earnings flow into US equities? If the Republican’s proposed tax reforms are enacted, a large proportion of overseas income held by US multinational enterprises (MNEs) could be returned to the US. We anticipate that a sizeable share... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will earnings growth continue to buoy global equities? This year’s rally in global equities has been driven primarily by an increase in investors’ expectations for corporate earnings. In general, we expect earnings to continue to support equities in 2018. 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM sovereign bonds likely to remain relatively resilient Although the yields of US Treasuries have rebounded recently, those of emerging market (EM) local currency sovereign bonds have typically increased by less. We suspect that this will continue as... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Pull-back in EM equities and currencies unlikely to last We do not think that the recent dip in emerging market (EM) currencies and equities signals the start of a larger downturn in their fortunes. 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will risky assets continue to shrug off the Fed? Risky asset markets took the Fed’s unexpectedly-hawkish tone on Wednesday in their stride. We think that they will remain resilient over the next year and a half or so, even though we forecast that... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Some revisions to our key market forecasts We have revised some of our key market forecasts for currencies, bonds and equities, partly because we no longer expect the FOMC to raise its target range for the federal funds rate again this year. 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How big a threat to EM assets is the scaling back of QE? Although policymakers are unlikely to give very much away, Friday’s Jackson Hole speeches will still be scrutinised for any hints about the timing of ECB “tapering” and Fed balance sheet... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We forecast a rebound in the German DAX We think that the prospects for German large-cap equities during the remainder of 2017 are quite bright, despite their pull-back over the past two months. Admittedly, we are revising down our end-year... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed, not China’s demand, to remain key driver of Treasuries Although China’s holdings of US Treasuries increased by more in June than in any other month in the past six years, we doubt that renewed Chinese buying of Treasuries will keep their yields low in the... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Recent rise unlikely to mark the start of a surge in spreads Credit spreads have risen as tensions between the US and North Korea have flared up. But the increase has been small and they are still low. We think that a downturn in the US economy is a more likely... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will North Korea tensions continue to weigh on US equities? The recent escalation of tensions between the US and North Korea has weighed on the S&P 500. But provided that war is avoided, we doubt that this marks the start of a sustained downturn in the index. 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are similarities with 2007 a cause for concern? Today is the tenth anniversary of the start of the global financial crisis (GFC), which triggered the worst recession since the Great Depression. Some are of the view that history may be about to... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will US corporate credit spreads stay low? US corporate credit spreads surged three years or so ago after falling to the levels that they have approached again recently. Nonetheless, we doubt that history is about to repeat itself. 24th July 2017 · 1 min read