Global Markets Update Which EM currencies are in the firing line in 2019? We expect EM currencies to weaken against the US dollar in 2019, with the South African rand and Colombian peso likely to fall by more than most. The Argentine peso and Turkish lira will probably be... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bund yields likely to remain low in 2019 and 2020 We think that loose monetary policy and safe-haven flows will keep the German 10-year government bond yield around its current level this year and next. Yields in most other “core” countries are also... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for the euro and euro-zone assets The outlook for the euro-zone economy has deteriorated sharply in recent months, prompting us to revise down our growth forecasts for the region. In this Update we discuss the implications of these... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Where are the risks greatest in EM equity markets? We think that EM Asian equities are set for more pain in 2019 despite their generally positive start to the year, and suspect that they will again be among the worst performers in the MSCI EM Index... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Our forecasts still favour bonds over equities in 2019 We remain of the view that slower growth in the US and Chinese economies will push stock markets down sharply again this year, and prevent the yields of high-grade bonds from rising much, if at all... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Commodity currencies unlikely to recover in 2019 Lower prices of commodities have weighed on the currencies of those countries whose fortunes depend heavily on them. Although we generally do not anticipate further large falls in prices in 2019, we... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Three big “non-consensus” calls for 2019 Three big “non-consensus” calls for 2019 on our Global Markets service are i) developed market government bonds will outperform developed market equities; ii) emerging market equities won’t bottom out... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Putting the slump in the S&P 500 into perspective The S&P 500 has already fallen to around 2,450, a bit below our once-bearish end-2019 forecast of 2,500. This is causing us to question whether it will even end the year that high. 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update French bonds likely to remain under pressure in 2019 Even if the domestic situation in France has calmed down, the underlying causes of the recent unrest linger. What’s more, we think that France has become more vulnerable to contagion risks from Italy. 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone corporate credit spreads likely to rise further Although corporate credit spreads in the euro-zone have already risen a long way, we think that they will continue to increase as concerns about growth in the region intensify. 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM equities not likely to bounce back in 2019 EM equities have had a torrid year, and we doubt that things will get any better in 2019. Indeed, we forecast that the MSCI EM Index will end next year around 10% below its current level, a similarly... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Weighing up the Brexit risks for sterling We think that there is more upside, than downside, risk for sterling when we weigh up the potential outcomes that could result from the chaos surrounding the UK’s scheduled departure from the EU. 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Don’t bank on the US stock market recovering in 2019 Although the S&P 500 has already fallen by roughly 10% since early October, we don’t expect it to rebound in 2019. Given the outlook for the US economy, we think that it will end next year even lower... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US financials unlikely to keep outperforming in 2019 In contrast to their relatively strong performance over the last decade, we expect financials in the US to fare worse in general than their counterparts in the euro-zone and the UK next year. 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Signs of things to come in a week of market turmoil We think that this week’s turbulence provides a reasonable guide to the trends to watch for in markets next year. In particular, while both the S&P 500 and US Treasury yields have started to drop a... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update In search of a return … from something While 2018 has been a very difficult year for “long-only” investors to make money from anything, 2019 may be a bit less challenging. Our view is that US government bonds will offer some reward next... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
