Global Markets Update Don’t bank on the US stock market recovering in 2019 Although the S&P 500 has already fallen by roughly 10% since early October, we don’t expect it to rebound in 2019. Given the outlook for the US economy, we think that it will end next year even lower... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US financials unlikely to keep outperforming in 2019 In contrast to their relatively strong performance over the last decade, we expect financials in the US to fare worse in general than their counterparts in the euro-zone and the UK next year. 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Signs of things to come in a week of market turmoil We think that this week’s turbulence provides a reasonable guide to the trends to watch for in markets next year. In particular, while both the S&P 500 and US Treasury yields have started to drop a... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update In search of a return … from something While 2018 has been a very difficult year for “long-only” investors to make money from anything, 2019 may be a bit less challenging. Our view is that US government bonds will offer some reward next... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to expect from markets after Trump & Xi meet There’s an air of optimism in markets about the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 this weekend, where trade will be top of the agenda. An agreement between the two leaders might... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The yen’s days as a safe haven are probably not over While doubts have been raised over whether the Japanese yen remains a safe haven in light of its poor performance in the summer, we think that the currency will retain this status for the foreseeable... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rising corporate credit spreads not just an oil story The recent pick-up in US corporate credit spreads is more than just a response to the slump in oil prices over the past couple of months. We think that it also reflects worries about the outlook for... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What the S&P’s slump tells us about the US economy While the 10% drop in the S&P 500 since early October can be partly blamed on plunging oil prices and concerns about global demand, it also seems to reflect justified fears about the US economic... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update No deal Brexit would be a mixed bag for UK assets We think that the performance of UK financial assets would be varied in the event of a no deal Brexit, which has become increasing likely given the recent political chaos in Westminster. 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Italy’s now-junk credit spread will probably get bigger Italian government bonds are now trading like “junk”, but we think that the spread between the yields of 10-year BTPs and German Bunds will increase even more in 2019 as Italy’s problems escalate and... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Three reasons why QT won’t drive UST yields up much A reassessment of the prospects for interest rates will probably play a far bigger role than the Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT) in influencing Treasuries next year. Indeed, we expect the 10-year... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Autos likely to remain a drag on euro-zone equities We think that equities in the euro-zone will be caught in the crossfire of a stock market sell-off in the US next year, as the economy there slows. Our forecast is for the S&P 500 to fall by 14% in... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More trouble ahead for Japan’s stock market We expect the stock market in Japan to come under more fire in 2019, as equity prices tumble in the US; the yen strengthens; and the Trump administration continues to exert pressure on China. Our... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Swiss stock market likely to fall less than most next year We think that the global economy will slow in 2019 and take a toll on equities generally. If history is any guide, Swiss stocks will not be spared. But two factors suggest that they will hold up... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to make of the big rise in TIPS yields The big rise in the real yields of US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) over the past year or so is a logical response to tighter Fed policy than investors were expecting. But it is... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US midterms unlikely to trigger a big market reaction We don’t expect today’s midterm elections in the US to have a major bearing on its stock market, even if the Republicans retain both chambers of Congress or the Democrats do very well. 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
