Global Markets Update Italy’s problems shouldn’t stop euro’s revival in 2019 Although Italy’s problems are likely to continue to weigh on the euro next year, we still think that the currency will strengthen against the dollar in response to a favourable shift in monetary... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Last month’s rebound in the US dollar is unlikely to last Although some of things that triggered a rebound in the US dollar in October are likely to continue to underpin the currency in 2019, we still think that it will weaken then as the Fed stops raising... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will low valuations cause EM equities to outperform? Although the valuations of emerging market (EM) equities have tumbled compared to those of their developed market (DM) peers, we are not convinced that they will deliver much higher returns over the... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US equities and the economy: squaring the circle While this month’s slump in the US stock market can’t be blamed on bad economic news, it can be attributed – at least in part – to concerns about the prospects for economic growth. We think that these... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bond markets less vulnerable to contagion from Italy Although we expect Italian bonds to remain under pressure over the coming years as the country’s fiscal and economic outlook continues to deteriorate, we think that European bond markets are generally... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sterling withstands fears of no deal Brexit Although October’s EU summit has come and gone without a Brexit deal in place, implied probabilities of a “no deal” do not seem to have increased very much, which is reflected in the resilience of... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to make of the global stock market sell-off Even stepping back from the volatility in stock markets around the world this week, global equities have clearly been weakening for a while, and are likely to do so again by the end of next year in... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Valuations don’t point to rebound in EM currencies Even though emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen a long way against the US dollar in recent months, in most cases their valuations do not yet appear particularly low. This pours cold water on... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Strength of Norwegian krone likely to end soon Although the Norwegian krone has been one of the best-performing currencies during the past couple of months, we expect it to weaken over the next two years as oil prices fall, economic growth slows... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More stock market weakness on the way The 5% drop in the S&P 500 so far this week suggests that investors are starting to factor in the prospect of the US economy slowing in response to tighter monetary policy. We think that this will... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further downside ahead for Italian equities The surge in Italian government bond yields in recent months has brought back to the forefront the vulnerability of the banking sector to falls in bond prices. Given our view that Italian bond yields... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tweaking, not abandoning, our key market forecasts Although we have raised some of our bearish forecasts for developed market equities, we still think that they will fall a long way in 2019 as the US economy falters. And while we have also made a... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Recovery in EM commodity currencies unlikely to last Increases in the prices of industrial commodities have helped to drive a rebound in some emerging market (EM) currencies since early September. But that rebound is already showing signs of faltering... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM local currency bonds not out of the woods While the recent shift towards tighter monetary policy in many emerging markets (EMs) is likely to continue, this is largely priced in to markets already. But we think that local currency government... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update BTP yields likely to rise further, but contagion risk low Italian bonds have come under renewed pressure after the government announced plans to loosen fiscal policy by more than markets anticipated over the coming years. We think that Italian bond yields... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Brighter times ought to lie ahead for the yen The Japanese yen is the only “major” currency to have fared worse than the US dollar since the middle of August. Nonetheless, we think that its fortunes will improve against the greenback. Our... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
