Global Markets Update Protectionism not the only headwind for EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies have mostly recovered a little ground against the dollar today. But the bigger picture is that they have generally been weakening for some time now, and in our view... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Four signs equity investors are worrying about trade Trade tensions have not caused any dramatic moves yet, but there are at least four clear signs in the equity markets of investors becoming more nervous about the possibility of a global trade war. 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Italian and Spanish equities remain safe havens? Benchmark equity indices in Italy and Spain have outperformed those elsewhere in Europe in the past days. But while the reasons for this may continue, they remain vulnerable to political risks. 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the joint sell-off in EM currencies and bonds last? The recent widespread weakness of emerging market (EM) currencies has been accompanied by a rise in local currency bond yields in almost all EMs. But even if currencies generally continue to slide, as... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Fed and ECB policy keep driving dollar/euro? The movements in dollar/euro over the past few days are a reminder that Fed and ECB policy are still important drivers of the exchange rate. Our view remains that their policies will provide ongoing... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are investors right to dismiss surging Japanese profits? Surging corporate profits in Japan since the beginning of last year have not generated much excitement among investors. This is probably because most of it has come from sectors that rely heavily on... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the IT sector continue to propel the S&P 500? The information technology (IT) sector of the S&P 500 has been on another tear since late April. Although its valuation is still not stretched and its weighting in the index will probably rise even... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Italian equities unlikely to stage a big rebound Although investors have become less concerned about the political situation in Italy, we do not expect a significant rebound in Italian equities, which have already come under pressure again this week... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New projections for DM bonds and currencies We have lowered our end-year forecasts for the yields of 10-year government bonds in the US, Germany and UK, all of which have fallen sharply during the past fortnight as Italy’s political crisis has... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Corporate bond yields likely to rise a lot further Although the yields of emerging market dollar-denominated corporate bonds have already risen substantially since the start of February, we expect them to climb much further. 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Treasuries are probably set for more pain before gain Although the 10-year US Treasury yield has already risen substantially so far this year, we continue to forecast that it will end 2018 significantly higher than it is now before dropping back in 2019. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How much worse will it get for EM assets? The pressure on emerging market (EM) assets that began in late January may have eased slightly in the past day or so. But our forecasts are for further weakness between now and the end of next year... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update European and Japanese equities likely to hit the buffers Large-cap equities in Europe and Japan have fared far better than those in the US since mid-April. But this seems to have been entirely due to a resurgence of the dollar, which we expect to more than... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further EM currency weakness likely to be limited Emerging market (EM) currencies have remained under pressure this week, and we expect most to soften further against the dollar. But, with the exceptions of the Turkish lira and Argentine peso, the... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Treasuries vulnerable even if inflation worries ease More than half of the 80bp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield since last September, to around 3.0% now, can be attributed to inflation compensation. The rest has been guided by a belief that the Fed... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will the end of ECB QE affect bond yields? We think that after the ECB has ended its asset purchases, bond yields will generally rise only slowly. The biggest increases are likely to come in the periphery, with Italy most at risk of a sharp... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
