Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Global Economics Focus Will the coronavirus permanently change behaviours? As long as social distancing isn’t practised for many years, then those behavioural changes triggered specifically by the coronavirus crisis will probably prove temporary. But those changes that were... 23rd June 2020 · 33 mins read
Global Economics Focus Inflation not the easy way to cut public debt burdens One of the key consequences of the coronavirus is set to be a sharp rise in government debt burdens. We have already looked at whether governments can just tolerate their rise in debt here. But this... 20th May 2020 · 31 mins read
Global Economics Focus Can governments shoulder a higher debt burden? The coronavirus will leave in its wake a sharp rise in public sector debt. Low interest rates suggest that many governments will be able to live with this, rather than having to resort to austerity... 5th May 2020 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Focus Is now the time for a helicopter drop? Central banks are already facilitating fiscal packages in various ways. But with the fiscal costs of the coronavirus likely to rise much further, policymakers might consider explicitly financing them... 24th March 2020 · 16 mins read
Global Economics Focus Could the coronavirus trigger a business debt crisis? Our current assumption is that the virus-related disruption is not severe enough to prompt a widespread business debt crisis. But if the virus triggers a sharper drop in profits or a bigger rise in... 6th March 2020 · 29 mins read
Global Economics Focus The new wave of technological progress We side with the optimists regarding the chances of another major technological step forward, although we can only guess at the timing. We expect the US to remain at the forefront of these advances... 18th February 2020 · 28 mins read
Global Economics Focus Combatting global warming needn’t hold back global growth We do not believe that there has to be a trade-off between preventing global warming and achieving economic growth. Even so, there is a clear risk that the world fails to prevent a significant further... 3rd December 2019 · 28 mins read
Global Economics Focus How will the future of globalisation play out? While the downside risks of a global trade war are often overstated, we think the bigger concern is that the world splits into competing regional blocs that do not cooperate on trade or investment... 22nd October 2019 · 19 mins read
Global Economics Focus Does globalisation have a future? Globalisation has peaked, with any further major integration unlikely. In fact, a policy-driven period of de-globalisation is increasingly likely. 15th October 2019 · 32 mins read
Global Economics Focus Globalisation and its effects on the world economy We estimate that the current wave of globalisation is responsible for around a third of the pick-up in global per capita income growth since 1990. Almost all of that reflects an improvement in... 10th October 2019 · 22 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lessons from the history of globalisation History shows that waves of globalisation are driven by both technology and policy, but protectionist shifts alone tend to end them. In some cases, like in the 1970s, a moderate pushback by... 8th October 2019 · 20 mins read
Global Economics Focus Negative rates: is the cure worse than the disease? Negative policy rates have had some positive effects in the economies where they apply and the direct adverse consequences have been small. But the policy has contributed to a fall in long-term... 5th September 2019 · 24 mins read
Global Economics Focus Is it time to give central banks new objectives? The Fed’s conference this week on monetary policy strategy has put central banks’ frameworks back in the spotlight. But even the more radical options being discussed, such as price level targets, are... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How will the rest of the world cope with 2% growth in China? Contrary to the mainstream view that China will keep growing at fairly rapid rates, we expect GDP growth there to slow to 2% by 2030. This slowdown need not in itself be bad for the rest of the world... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Next major adverse shock could come from computers The computer revolution is positive for economic growth, but it also means that technological risks must be added to the threats facing the global economy. While the economic impact of the internet... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
