Global Economics Focus How will policymakers fight the next downturn? Concerns that policymakers in developed countries do not have the tools to fight the next downturn are generally misplaced. There is plenty more they could do. The constraints will instead be... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Assessing several “bellwethers” of the world economy Having considered seven commonly-cited indicators of the state of global economic growth, we conclude that trade volumes and Markit’s PMI surveys provide the best guide to the state of activity in... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus As US slowdowns go, this one won’t be too worrying The US slowdown that we anticipate next year will weigh on global growth, but the impact will be relatively mild by past standards. This means that interest rates in some areas will be rising at the... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus A brief overview of 700 years of economic downturns The causes of economic downturns have changed over time, from harvest failures and wars, to monetary policy, oil shocks and financial crises. Looking ahead, we think the next major global downturn... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will tighter monetary policy cause the next big downturn? We expect the Fed’s monetary policy tightening cycle, which is now well underway, to contribute to a slowdown in the US economy during 2019-2020. And tighter monetary policy may also trigger downturns... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will a trade war sink the global economy? It would require a significant escalation from the measures seen so far for a trade war to be the trigger of the next global downturn. The bigger risks at this stage are that lower-level skirmishes... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Where are the risks from property greatest? In this follow-up to our recent Global Economics Focus “Why is property so often the source of trouble?” we assess where in the world the biggest risks to property prices lie. House price falls in a... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Why is property so often the source of trouble? It is now ten years since the property-induced global financial crisis and house prices in many countries are rising rapidly again. So now seems like a good time to assess whether property... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus The damage from a global trade war Assessing the damage from a global trade war is tricky because there are few historical precedents and the costs would depend on the nature of the conflict. But our best guess is that, if all... 9th July 2018 · 25 mins read
Global Economics Focus How will demographics affect the world economy? Slowing population growth and population ageing will weigh heavily on economic growth in the coming decade or two, particularly in Europe and Asia. These forces will be only partly offset by increased... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Short-term risks of protectionism are overstated Even if the US and China were to follow through on their recent protectionist threats, the impact on global growth in the next year or two would be small. Moreover, a bigger and more damaging... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What causes recessions? An analysis of all the recessions which have occurred in G7 economies since 1960 throws up two main conclusions. First, while most had multiple triggers, monetary policy tightening was usually one of... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus US fiscal stimulus to have limited global impact The Trump fiscal stimulus, which has turned out to be larger than seemed likely a few months ago, should boost economic growth in the US a little, and encourage the Fed to press on with six rate hikes... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How big a threat are Trump’s tariff proposals? It looks increasingly likely that President Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium on grounds of national security will be implemented in some form. If so, other governments... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will this still be a Goldilocks year for the world economy? Notwithstanding the recent turbulence in equity markets, global economic growth should hold up well and inflation remain low this year. But next year, some of the shine will come off this strong... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Bitcoin: how worried/excited should we be? Claims that cryptocurrencies will replace established fiat currencies are rubbish; our view is that Bitcoin is a bubble. Indeed, the latest price falls suggest that the bubble is bursting – although... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
