Global Economics Focus How big a threat are Trump’s tariff proposals? It looks increasingly likely that President Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium on grounds of national security will be implemented in some form. If so, other governments... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will this still be a Goldilocks year for the world economy? Notwithstanding the recent turbulence in equity markets, global economic growth should hold up well and inflation remain low this year. But next year, some of the shine will come off this strong... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Bitcoin: how worried/excited should we be? Claims that cryptocurrencies will replace established fiat currencies are rubbish; our view is that Bitcoin is a bubble. Indeed, the latest price falls suggest that the bubble is bursting – although... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus The death of inflation targeting? There are many reasons to think that inflation targeting has had its day. The framework has already evolved to some extent, with central banks adopting “flexible” inflation-targeting and... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How big a threat is the unwinding of QE? Provided that they follow the blue-print set out by the US Fed, the world’s major central banks should be able to scale back their balance sheets over the coming years without huge adverse economic... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Could it all happen again? Ten years after the beginnings of the global financial crisis, the risks of something similar occurring again in the near future appear to be fairly low. The amount of risky lending has been reduced... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus The road back to normal monetary policy In our view, the tightening of global monetary policy in the coming years need not be all that substantial. This is largely because equilibrium interest rates have fallen a long way in the past few... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will inflation ever pick up again? We think the average inflation rate in advanced economies will remain lower than it was in the pre-crisis period for the foreseeable future, for several reasons. In some economies, there is more spare... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will high levels of debt weigh on global growth? Although debt-to-GDP ratios in advanced economies remain high by historical standards, they are at least on sustainable trajectories. Accordingly, fiscal austerity and household deleveraging appear to... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Are the world’s banks back to normal? If “normal” means the under-regulated and over-leveraged state that they were in before the crisis, then that is the last thing we need the world’s banks to return to. Thankfully, however, that does... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus The causes of the financial crisis The seeds of the financial crisis were sown in the interaction of four key factors, linked by one critical underlying problem. This was an intellectual failure across financial institutions... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus History does not support pessimism about productivity potential Pessimism about the potential for future productivity growth and hence increases in living standards, based on recent poor productivity performance, is not well-founded. It provides no good reason to... 1st November 2017 · 26 mins read
Global Economics Focus How will the world cope with tighter monetary policy? We expect global growth to slow only modestly as the era of easy money starts drawing to a close. The monetary tightening is set to be gradual, limited and staggered, with some countries only starting... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is the world now back to full employment? The unemployment rate in most advanced economies is now lower than it was on the eve of the financial crisis. However, the “natural” rate of unemployment has probably fallen and the supply of labour... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is central bank independence under threat? Despite the criticisms levelled at them over the past year, central banks are not likely to be stripped of their independence anytime soon, or have their mandates radically changed. Politicians who... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is the Phillips Curve dead? The forces which have weakened the relationship between unemployment and inflation in recent decades are likely to persist, or even gather strength, in the coming years. If so, wage and price... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
