Global Economics Focus What are the economic effects of sanctions? Although economic sanctions can have a devastating effect in some circumstances, their impact is more often fairly limited, even on the targeted country. In most cases sanctions are not intended to... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How does “Draghi-nomics” compare to Abenomics? ECB President Mario Draghi’s call at Jackson Hole for fiscal policy to play a greater role alongside monetary policy in boosting aggregate demand has prompted some to label the change of tone “Draghi... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is the global recovery stalling? Despite the recent run of bad news, particularly from Europe, we do not believe that the world economy is about to slow sharply. There is still ample spare capacity for growth and plenty of room for... 25th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Can macro-prudential policies prevent bubbles? If policy-makers hope that macro-prudential measures alone will prevent asset price bubbles from occurring, they may well be disappointed. In principle, these regulations should be able to dampen... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Global interest rates likely to diverge sharply With the world economy gradually recovering, it is tempting to assume that there will be a global monetary policy tightening cycle in the coming years. However, we think US interest rates will return... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What the crisis in Ukraine could mean for the rest of the world The crisis in Ukraine still has the potential to have a significant and prolonged impact on the global economy and financial markets, even though our current judgement is that the fallout is likely to... 7th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will the Fed’s “exit” stifle the global recovery? Since May this year, when US bond yields started to rise, market participants have been concerned about the implications for the global recovery of the Fed scaling back its policy support. In our view... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What to make of changes in labour market participation In most advanced western economies the supply of labour is likely to be boosted by a rise in labour market participation during the coming year or two. This should help to prevent wage inflation... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Are policymakers going soft on inflation? Recent and prospective changes in the conduct of monetary policy suggest that policymakers may be willing to take slightly greater risks with inflation than they were previously. But we expect... 22nd March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is the deleveraging process over? Five years after the financial crisis, there is growing optimism that the world economy is finally on the mend. However, the deleveraging process is far from complete. Further public sector austerity... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What’s needed for a stronger global recovery? If it were not for the euro-zone crisis, world economic growth would probably gather pace next year. Prospects for the US are brightening, there has been significant progress with private sector... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Global growth prospects beyond 2020 Some commentators argue that growth of world per capita income over the coming few decades will be much lower than in the past, because technological progress has slowed or because of the depletion of... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What are the prospects for global growth until 2020? Even when the dust finally settles from the global financial crisis, we doubt that the world will return to the high growth rates achieved before 2008. Slower expansion of the labour force, the... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What more can central banks do? Many commentators argue that central banks in advanced economies have all but run out of ammunition. We disagree. Admittedly, the room for further conventional policy stimulus is fairly limited, but... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How would break-up of the euro affect the rest of the world? A partial break-up of the euro-zone, with the weakest economies leaving and the core holding together, could be part of the solution to Europe’s problems, rather than the disaster that many assume. As... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What are Argentina's lessons for the euro-zone? Argentina’s experience after the collapse of the peso ten years ago supports the view that Greece, and perhaps other peripheral economies, would ultimately be better off leaving the euro-zone rather... 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
