Global Economics Focus Chapter 3: Where will inflation (and nominal rates) settle? Why we expect a more volatile inflation outlook in the coming years, and how central banks are likely to respond in setting nominal rates in this new normal. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 2: How will the savings/investment balance affect r*? Why savings and investment incentives will become better aligned in the next decade than over the past 20 years, causing r* to rise. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 1: Will stronger potential growth boost r*? Examining how the drivers that have been pulling down equilibrium rates are fading, and the strengthening forces that will push rates higher in the coming decade. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introduction and framework The analytical framework for our r* research, where equilibrium interest rates are determined by the potential rate of GDP growth and other factors which influence the desire to save or invest. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus r* and the end of the ultra-low rates era: executive summary Highlighting the key takeaways from our in-depth new analysis on equilibrium real interest rates in the post-pandemic global economy. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Markets Focus How worried should we be about the Treasury sell-off? The government bond sell-off over the past three months raises uncomfortable questions around the risks of financial instability and the outlook for fiscal policy. This note takes stock of what has... 6th October 2023 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Focus Is corporate greed to blame for high inflation? The surge in inflation in advanced economies has not been driven by a widening of firms’ profit margins. However, the fact that firms have been able to maintain profit margins in the face of rising... 29th June 2023 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introducing our new financial conditions indices (FCIs) We have revamped our financial conditions indices (FCIs) for DM economies. This document sets out a framework for analysing financial conditions, explains our methodology, presents and interprets our... 18th April 2023 · 20 mins read
Global Economics Focus The future wage-price relationship: good, bad or ugly? Inflation is now being driven by wage growth rather than just the temporary influence of energy effects and goods shortages, raising fears that central banks will be forced to engineer sharp increases... 29th March 2023 · 20 mins read
Global Economics Focus Most of the monetary hit is yet to be felt We think that most – perhaps two thirds – of the drag on activity from tighter monetary policy in advanced economies is still to come through in 2023. So, despite some surprisingly resilient data... 7th March 2023 · 26 mins read
Global Economics Focus Risks from the ‘shadow banking’ sector As things stand, we think it is unlikely that non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) would trigger a major financial crisis comparable to the Global Financial Crisis. The biggest risks relate to... 15th February 2023 · 26 mins read
Global Economics Focus The economic threat from cyberwarfare The Ukraine war has sent the risk of Russian cyberattacks on the West soaring up the agenda, with an attack on critical infrastructure potentially bringing whole economies to a halt. In most cases, a... 22nd November 2022 · 16 mins read
Global Economics Focus When will tourism recover from the pandemic? The post-pandemic recovery in travel and tourism still has some way to go in parts of the world that have been slower to lift restrictions, such as in Asia. And China’s reluctance to move away from... 15th September 2022 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Focus What has happened to the Phillips curve? Hopes that policymakers can engineer a soft landing rest heavily on the belief that wage growth can be tamed without a surge in unemployment. This ‘Phillips curve’ relationship has changed recently... 6th September 2022 · 27 mins read
Asia Economics Focus The economic consequences of an attack on Taiwan China’s leadership has options other than invasion to coerce Taiwan to submit to its political control. The immediate economic and financial ramifications would differ in each case. But any scenario... 2nd August 2022 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Focus How high will interest rates go? Equilibrium interest rates in advanced economies are probably still very low. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty about how far above this equilibrium interest rates will have to go in the... 21st June 2022 · 16 mins read
