Global Economics Focus The implications of higher food prices Surging food prices are a cloud over the global economic outlook. While food inflation should fall sharply next year, it will remain high in the near term, eating further into households’ spending... 14th June 2022 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Focus Can the world cope with higher interest rates? We expect the most aggressive policy tightening cycle in decades to cause a slowdown in global economic growth, not a severe downturn. The biggest risk is that inflation stays higher for much longer... 1st June 2022 · 27 mins read
Global Economics Focus Property the weak link as interest rates rise We think that property markets are the weak link when it comes to the impact of tightening monetary policy. A modest rise in interest rates might only cause price falls in a few obvious candidates... 25th March 2022 · 22 mins read
Global Economics Focus Will labour shortages persist? Current labour shortages are not purely the result of short-term absenteeism related to the virus. Indeed, we estimate that around 80% of the shortfall can be explained by factors that will prove more... 8th March 2022 · 24 mins read
Global Economics Focus How high will interest rates go? With equilibrium interest rates in developed markets probably still close to record lows, actual interest rates are likely to peak at a far lower level in this cycle than in most previous ones. The... 16th February 2022 · 20 mins read
Global Economics Focus Will labour shortages spur productivity gains? One possible upside of the current labour market shortages in developed economies is that they could push firms towards expanding output by raising investment and productivity instead of relying on... 2nd December 2021 · 19 mins read
Global Economics Focus Do inflation expectations matter? We have long been sceptical of the conventional view that inflation expectations have been an important determinant of inflation in advanced economies. At the same time, though, we doubt that... 1st November 2021 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Focus Is stagflation-lite the start of something more serious? With supply shortages set to persist for the next 6 to 12 months, the current period of “stagflation-lite” will persist a while longer. But it is likely to remain a pale imitation of the 1970s... 7th October 2021 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Focus An anatomy of supply shortages Current supply shortages have been driven by several forces which look set to persist for six to twelve months. They have caused sharp increases in some prices (most notably energy and used cars) and... 6th October 2021 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Focus The CBDCs are coming We expect some major central banks to issue digital currencies later this decade, with those in countries where cash is rarest proceeding the fastest. The first generation of central bank digital... 6th July 2021 · 20 mins read
Global Economics Focus Great Inflation 2.0? Lessons from the 1970s Policy stimulus and tolerance of inflation by central banks may lead to higher inflation in some G7 countries in the coming years. Given the parallels with the run-up to the high-inflation era of the... 29th April 2021 · 32 mins read
Global Economics Focus Challenges of big central bank balance sheets are manageable One legacy of the pandemic is a huge expansion in central banks’ balance sheets. Fears that this will automatically boost inflation are overdone. So, too, are worries that central banks will provoke a... 17th February 2021 · 25 mins read
Global Economics Focus The unusual resilience of trade and what lies in store The relative resilience of real global merchandise trade during the pandemic has reflected several factors, most importantly robust goods spending in advanced economies. Merchandise trade flows are... 23rd December 2020 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Focus A new era of financial repression Financial repression – defined in the current context as measures that artificially lower the cost of government borrowing – will become an increasingly used tool to cope with higher public sector... 10th November 2020 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Focus The role of the state in the post-pandemic world The state has taken on a much greater role in G7 countries during the pandemic and there is no guarantee that it will relinquish all its new powers when the coronavirus threat fades. The pandemic... 13th October 2020 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Focus The private sector costs of COVID-19 The immediate costs of the COVID crisis will be shouldered more by governments than the private sector. However, as fiscal support recedes in the coming years, a greater share of the costs will be... 30th September 2020 · 31 mins read
