Global Economics Focus Trump, China and the world in 2017 In this Focus we consider the outlook for the world economy this year and next, in light of two of the biggest concerns which have preoccupied investors in recent months: US economic policy under... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus World trade in the Trump era The election of Donald Trump is the clearest expression so far of the growing anti-globalisation sentiment across advanced economies. Initially at least, we think that his bark will prove to be worse... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Can we forecast elections and referendums? The failure of opinion polls or bookmakers to predict the UK’s June vote to leave the EU caught many investors by surprise. However, both polls and betting markets have a reasonable track record in... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will global demand remain weak? Advanced economies have been suffering from weak underlying demand, partly due to a mix of demographic and technological changes. Looking ahead, there is some scope for a rebound in private investment... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is there too much debt in the world? In our view, the claim that there is too much debt in the world is simplistic. High and rising debt burdens are a serious concern in some countries, including China and Japan. But debt burdens in most... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How big a deal would Brexit be for the world economy? If the UK votes to leave the EU, there would probably be some negative fallout for the UK itself and other European economies due to the resulting uncertainty about their future economic relationship... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Are lower oil prices good or bad for the world economy? This Focus addresses two of the biggest concerns which have undermined confidence in the global economy and markets this year: worries over China and the further slump in the oil price. While... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Are negative interest rates effective? This week’s news that the ECB discussed cutting its deposit rate further below zero has revived discussion of the limits to, and effects of, negative interest rates. Their use by several European... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How much should we worry about a slump in China? The recent turbulence in equity markets has highlighted how vulnerable global investor sentiment is to developments in China, but the risks to the world economy are smaller than many assume. Although... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What happened to the oil windfall? So far this year, households in advanced economies do not seem to have been spending their windfall from lower oil prices. However, this is partly because they stepped up their consumption late last... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus China and the SDR: a storm in a basket It is only a matter of time before China passes another milestone as the renminbi is added to the basket of currencies which determine the value of the IMF’s special drawing right. However, we doubt... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is globalisation dead? The past four years have seen the slowest pace of global economic integration since the Second World War. With trade talks stalled and most parts of the world already integrated into the global... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Does QE work? The launch of “full blown” quantitative easing by the ECB this year has been greeted enthusiastically by financial markets. However, the global track record of QE since it was first adopted by the... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is deleveraging over? It is often claimed that the world is “awash with debt” and that there has been little, if any, progress with deleveraging since the global financial crisis. But in reality, the picture is more mixed... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Using the PMIs to compare growth rates Business surveys, such as the Purchasing Managers’ Indices published by Markit, provide a timely guide to the health of individual economies, but they are not directly comparable across countries. In... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How will the slump in oil prices affect the world economy? The collapse in oil prices over the past few months will not transform the outlook for the world economy, but it should act as an “automatic stabiliser”, providing some reassurance to those fearing... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
