Global Economics Focus How well will growth in emerging economies hold up? Emerging Asia and Latin America should continue to grow relatively fast even if the euro-zone slides into prolonged recession, as long as the US avoids the same fate. The outlook for emerging Europe... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What can emerging economies do to help the rest of the world? Emerging economies will continue growing rapidly this year and next while, despite a strong start to the year, we expect advanced economies to manage sub-trend growth, at best. But rapid growth in... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Euro-crisis: how big is the threat of financial contagion for EMs? The economies of Asia and Latin America should be able to weather any financial contagion stemming from Europe’s debt crisis. But the economies of emerging Europe – notably Hungary, Turkey and the... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Does a sovereign debt crisis always cause a financial crisis? While there are no direct historical parallels with the current situation in Europe, a review of past experience suggests policymakers may need to resolve the euro-zone’s sovereign debt crisis... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Sovereign Debt: are the emerging markets immune? Emerging markets are not immune from the deepening debt crisis in the developed world, but most are well-placed to deal with the fallout. China faces a difficult structural transition of its own but... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Why do countries default and what are the consequences? History suggests that in many cases a sovereign default ultimately proves to be a good thing for the country concerned, as it can set the stage for economic recovery. This is more likely to be the... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Capital flows to emerging markets: an accident waiting to happen? Fears of a widespread bubble in emerging markets look overdone, but there are growing signs that rapid capital inflows are stoking problems in several countries. We think the biggest risks lie in... 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Does inflation offer a way out of the debt crisis? Deliberately embracing higher inflation as a way out of the sovereign debt crisis could have disastrous consequences. Instead, for most advanced countries, wherever it is feasible, a combination of... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Asset price bubbles – where are the greatest risks? We do not believe there is a bubble in government bonds. Bubbles are more likely to develop in emerging markets but are not yet widespread. Instead, our greatest concern is the high levels of... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Emerging markets will not rescue the rest of the world Emerging market economies will continue to grow rapidly over the next few years. But with current account surpluses in most of Asia and among oil producers likely to remain high, this will not be of... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus A fresh look at the lessons from Japan The financial markets seem confident that the West can avoid the prolonged period of economic stagnation and price deflation that took hold of Japan in the 1990s. Looking back again at the Japanese... 22nd December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Three challenges facing emerging markets in 2010 Emerging markets have, on the whole, weathered the crisis in the global economy well. But 2010 will bring a fresh set of challenges. Overall, we think Asia is best placed to prosper, followed by Latin... 11th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is there still a serious deflationary threat? With the recovery in the global economy gaining momentum and conditions in many financial markets getting back to normal, the threat of deflation would seem to have receded. We agree that a full-blown... 20th October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus From banking crisis to fiscal crisis? The measures put in place by governments to support their banking sectors and economies have helped to avert a full-scale financial meltdown and a 1930s-style economic depression. But the full costs... 12th October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Can Asia ride to the rescue? The global crisis has driven home the need for Asia to do more to expand domestic demand. But in every part of Asia there are frictions which mean the necessary policy shift will be drawn out. As a... 6th October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Could SDRs supplant the dollar? IMF Special Drawing Rights will not emerge as a reserve asset to challenge the dollar, but they could be used to reduce the risks of a destabilising flight by reserve holders from the US currency. 14th July 2009 · 33 mins read
