Europe Economics Update Italy’s economy likely to continue to disappoint Today’s Italian GDP data were disappointing and we expect the economy to continue to grow at a fairly slow pace. As a result, the government debt-to-GDP ratio is unlikely to fall over the coming years... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Just how worried should we be about Spain? Political developments in Spain could not only dampen the country’s previously strong economic recovery but also threaten to re-ignite the euro-zone’s debt crisis. 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the Greek economy out of danger? The recent run of surprisingly strong data from Greece does not mean that the economy is out of danger. Not only has some survey evidence painted a much gloomier picture, but the full adverse economic... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fall of Portuguese Government shows austerity is failing Today’s vote of no confidence in the Portuguese Government seems set to usher in a renewed push against austerity and a further rise in bond yields. The one hope is that mounting public resistance to... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Italy’s labour market recovery continue? Italy’s labour market has shown some strong signs of improvement since the summer, but we suspect that this is unlikely to last. Reduced tax incentives for hiring, as well as sluggish economic growth... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank policy unchanged, but rate cut likely next year The Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold today, but its loosening cycle is not over. Inflation looks set to fall next year and, as a result, we have pencilled in a 25 basis point cut in March. 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank policy unchanged, but rate cut likely next year The Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold today, but its loosening cycle is not over. Inflation looks set to fall next year and, as a result, we have pencilled in a 25 basis point cut in March. 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Belgium’s tax shift boost growth? Belgium has the highest tax burden on labour in Europe, so measures announced recently aimed at reducing it are a positive step. However, the reforms do not go far enough. Accordingly, over the next... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland raises rates and tightening cycle not yet over Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to raise its key interest rates by 25bp does not mark the end of its tightening cycle. A further rate rise is likely at the next meeting in December. 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland raises rates and tightening cycle not yet over Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to raise its key interest rates by 25bp does not mark theend of its tightening cycle. A further rate rise is likely at the next meeting in December. 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Stress tests offer little hope of Greek lending revival ECB stress tests have offered some comfort about Greek banks’ solvency, but they are not out of the woods. And with a lack of access to cheap funding and depressed deposits seriously restricting banks... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) The euro-zone’s peripheral economies appear to have improved their fiscal positions in the year to September. But progress hasn’t been sufficient for most to put their debt ratios on a downward trend... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB really cut rates even further? While we have argued for some time that the ECB will expand its asset purchases in December, we now expect it to cut its deposit rate further into negative territory too. This seems unlikely to have... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank loosens policy but still more needed The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to increase the size of its government bond-buying programme was clearly a response to the growing anticipation of more stimulus from the ECB. We think that these... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Weak inflation expectations add to pressure on ECB The dovish stance taken by the ECB in recent weeks has partly reflected its fear that inflation expectations have become unanchored from the near-2% target. Such concerns are justified, supporting... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank loosens policy but still more needed The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to increase the size of its government bond-buying programme was clearly a response to the growing anticipation of more stimulus from the ECB. We think that these... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
