Europe Economics Update Time to let Greece go? While Greece and its creditors look set to make one last attempt to reach an agreement, it might very soon be time to accept the inevitable and refocus efforts on how best to manage the country’s exit... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish exports to struggle despite weaker krona Sweden’s exporters are finally starting to feel the benefits of the krona’s decline over the past couple of years. But firms’ desire to widen profit margins, weak global demand and uncertainty about... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish exports to struggle despite weaker krona Sweden’s exporters are finally starting to feel the benefits of the krona’s decline over the past couple of years. But firms’ desire to widen profit margins, weak global demand and uncertainty about... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Oxi vote pushes Grexit probability further above 50% While yesterday’s resounding Oxi (No) vote in the Greek referendum does not guarantee a Greek exit from the euro-zone, it has surely raised the probability of such an event further above 50%. 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece has room to grow outside the euro The large degree of spare capacity in the Greek economy suggests that it could perform well if the constraints of fiscal austerity and a strong currency were removed via a euro-zone exit. But Greece’s... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank boosts stimulus to weaken krona Sweden’s central bank today stepped up its monetary policy stimulus to protect the nascent uptrend in inflation and fight the recent strengthening of the krona. But with the upward pressure on the... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Reforms will help Italian banks crawl back to health Recent reforms will help Italy’s fragile banking system. But a legacy of bad debts and the earlier tightening of lending standards will weigh on the country’s recovery for a while yet. 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank boosts stimulus to weaken krona Sweden’s central bank today stepped up its monetary policy stimulus to protect the nascent uptrend in inflation and fight the recent strengthening of the krona. But with the upward pressure on the... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Tsipras blinks, but Grexit risks are still high The expiry of Greece’s second bailout programme and its “default” to the IMF have raised the crisis to a new level. With latest polls suggesting that a majority of voters will vote to reject the... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update For how long will low oil prices boost spending growth? The declines in oil prices since last summer might add as much as 1 percentage point to euro-zone consumer spending growth this year. However, unless oil prices fall further, which we do not expect... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Even a Yes vote might not prevent a Grexit A Yes vote in Sunday’s Greek referendum, if it goes ahead, will not guarantee the country’s futureinside the euro-zone. Not only is it unclear just what deal such an outcome would lead to, but... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greferendum – key questions & answers The Greek Government’s decision to call a referendum has elevated the crisis to a higher level. Whilea deal may yet come together, a near-term Grexit now seems more likely than not. This... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) May’s euro-zone monetary data were consistent with continued economic recovery.But with the probability of a Greek default and Grexit building by the day, the riskof a full-blown banking crisis in the... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Market volatility won’t throw QE off track There is no sign that the ECB has begun to “front-load” its asset purchases ahead of the summer lull in liquidity, despite suggestions by officials that it would do so. But the Bank will nonetheless... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Without major debt relief, a Greek deal won’t end crisis While a deal between Greece and its creditors may finally emerge in the next few days, it still looks unlikely to include the substantial debt relief needed to end the crisis and eliminate the risk of... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Grexit might be unavoidable, but it need not be a crisis In 2012, Capital Economics won the Wolfson Prize for our submission on how the exit from the eurozone of a small country like Greece might best be managed. Given the still significant risk that... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read