Europe Economics Update Will market turmoil prompt a euro-zone recession? Several financial market indicators are warning of an impending euro-zone recession. For now, even we think that is too pessimistic. But it supports our non-consensus view that growth is set to slow... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank cuts rates, but more work is needed Today’s decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to cut its repo rate further below zero demonstrated that it is prepared to set aside its worries about a housing market bubble and strong domestic demand in... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank cuts rates, but more work is needed Today’s decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to cut its repo rate further below zero demonstrated that it is prepared to set aside its worries about a housing market bubble and strong domestic demand in... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank troubles intensify downside risks to growth The renewed concerns over the health of the euro-zone’s banks present an awkward policy dilemma for the European Central Bank and further raise the downside risks to the currency union’s economy. 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Icelandic rates on hold but more policy tightening to come Although Iceland’s central bank decided today to keep its key interest rates unchanged again, upward inflation pressures and domestic economic strength mean that rate hikes are likely later this year... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic rates on hold but more policy tightening to come Although Iceland’s central bank decided today to keep its key interest rates unchanged again, upward inflation pressures and domestic economic strength mean that rate hikes are likely later this year... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese Government struggling to resist austerity The European Commission made only minor concessions to the Portuguese Government over its 2016 Budget and the pace of fiscal consolidation will still be faster this year than last. This suggests that... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Current account surplus will keep Danish krone strong Denmark’s large current account surplus should narrow in the coming years as the economic recovery there takes hold, but it will not disappear entirely. This will sustain the upward pressure on the... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) The latest fiscal data suggest that the euro-zone’s peripheral economies generally improved theirbudgetary positions last year. But, with the exception of Ireland, their public debt is not yet falling... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Current account surplus will keep Danish krone strong Denmark’s large current account surplus should narrow in the coming years as the economic recovery there takes hold, but it will not disappear entirely. This will sustain the upward pressure on the... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The ECB is losing the global currency race Having succeeded in bringing the euro down sharply last year, the European Central Bank (ECB) has recently fallen behind in the race amongst global policymakers to weaken their currencies in order to... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we worry about the Irish election? Given the political turbulence after recent elections in Spain and Portugal, there are some concerns about the potential outcome of the Irish election, now scheduled for just three weeks’ time. But... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone consumers have spent their oil windfalls The decline in oil prices and inflation has probably had a more positive impact on the euro-zone economy than expected as the region’s consumers have spent their windfalls. But as the oil boost fades... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) December’s euro-zone monetary data suggested that money and lending growth in the currency union has peaked, adding to the case for the ECB to loosen monetary policy significantly in March. 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How exposed is Germany to a hard landing in China? Even a very sharp slowdown in China would not be enough on its own to push Germany into recession. But if, contrary to our forecasts, a slowdown in China prompted a more generalised slowdown in global... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB stokes expectations again... this time it must meet them The ECB signalled firmly today that further policy loosening is imminent. While we are wary of putting too much faith in its communications after last month’s disappointment, there are good reasons to... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
