Europe Economics Update Election won’t end the Greek crisis Whichever party wins this Sunday’s Greek election is likely to stick broadly to the conditions of the new bailout in the near term. But even an austerity-minded government will struggle to meet future... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How might the ECB expand QE? It looks increasingly likely that the ECB will expand its asset purchase programme, possibly even as soon as next month. We think that the Bank will step up the pace of purchases, perhaps to €80bn per... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Greece take advantage of a devaluation? Anxiety about Grexit may have subsided but the underlying issues have not changed. Greece still needs a weaker currency. The well-worn argument that Greece would not be able to take advantage of a... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi paves way for more QE While the European Central Bank (ECB) left its key policy instruments unchanged today, changes to its bond purchase limits and President Mario Draghi’s dovish signals appeared to pave the way for an... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank still has more work to do The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to leave its monetary policy stance unchanged suggested that it has been reassured by the recent run of better-than-expected activity and inflation data. But with... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank still has more work to do The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to leave its monetary policy stance unchanged suggested that it has been reassured by the recent run of better-than-expected activity and inflation data. But with... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.) The euro-zone’s peripheral economies appear to have strengthened their fiscal positions further at the start of Q3. But this year’s budget targets still look elusive for most. Greece, in particular... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Danish bond issuance restarts, but rate hikes a long way off Although Denmark’s central bank has started to unwind some of the special measures that it introduced earlier this year to cap upward pressure on the currency, we still think that the deposit rate is... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) July’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that Q2’s slowdown in GDP growth is not the beginning of a more substantial downturn. Nevertheless, growth is likely to remain sluggish. And the problems in... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Danish bond issuance restarts, but rate hikes a long way off Although Denmark’s central bank has started to unwind some of the special measures that it introduced earlier this year to cap upward pressure on the currency, we still think that the deposit rate is... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro’s rise stall the recovery? Agriculture accounts for 2% of GDP while the livestock sector is probably 1% or less. Accordingly, a 10% reduction in livestock output would reduce GDP by 0.1% for as long as it lasts. This accords... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update When will Finland’s unemployment rate start to fall? Finland’s unemployment rate has been on the rise for the best part of three years. While we do not think that it will climb much further, we do not expect it to fall much over the next few years... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rate cut in Iceland set to be a one-off Today’s rate cut by the Sedlabanki is likely to be a one-off. Indeed, the recent acceleration of economic growth suggests that the risks to the Bank’s new inflation forecasts are tilted to the upside... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update When will Finland’s unemployment rate start to fall? Finland’s unemployment rate has been on the rise for the best part of three years. While we do not think that it will climb much further, we do not expect it to fall much over the next few years... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s fiscal consolidation hampered by low inflation Inflation dynamics continue to hamper Portugal’s attempts to deal with its huge debt problems. The country may need to implement more fiscal austerity as it struggles to pay down its debt. 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bailout approved, but implementation doubtful The German Parliament’s approval of the third Greek bailout should prompt payments allowing Greece to narrowly avoid default yet again. But Grexit risks have not disappeared and are likely to flare up... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
