Europe Economics Update Will Greece pass its first bailout review? There would appear to be a good chance that Greece will pass the first formal review of its third bailout programme. But nothing is certain and even a successful outcome won’t necessarily mark the... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update One year on from the Swiss franc shock Swiss exports have performed better than we had feared in the year since the SNB abandoned its currency ceiling. But the franc’s strength has probably yet to take its full toll on exports and the... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update One year on from the Swiss franc shock Swiss exports have performed better than we had feared in the year since the SNB abandoned its currency ceiling. But the franc’s strength has probably yet to take its full toll on exports and the... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sustained franc strength will hit Swiss economy hard The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) shock decision to abandon its ceiling for the franc reflected its judgement that the policy was just not sustainable. Unless it can reverse the franc’s appreciation... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Riksbank put its money where its mouth is? Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to have to follow through on its pledge to intervene in the foreign exchange market. But the strength of the domestic economy and the likelihood of more ECB QE means that... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will the Riksbank put its money where its mouth is? Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to have to follow through on its pledge to intervene in the foreign exchange market. But the strength of the domestic economy and the likelihood of more ECB QE means that... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) The latest fiscal data suggested that the peripheral countries continued to improve their budgetary positions at the back end of 2015. But there is a distinct risk of fiscal slippage in 2016... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Faster German wage growth is nothing to fear The recent pick-up in German wage growth is encouraging and we think that fears of a sharp rise in inflation and loss of competitiveness are unwarranted. Our one misgiving is that the ECB might... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish election deals another blow to austerity The inconclusive result of the Spanish general election is set to trigger a period of political uncertainty which could slow the country’s economic recovery. But it also represents another blow to the... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone employment recovery masks national divergence Employment in the euro-zone is expanding at a healthy pace and survey data point to a positive outlook. But this hides a very mixed story amongst different countries, and the overall picture is... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the election threaten Spain’s recovery? The likely advent of a coalition government after this Sunday’s Spanish general election looks unlikely to bring the country’s robust economic recovery to a halt. But a period of political instability... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals rate cuts next year The Norges Bank left monetary policy unchanged today, but with growth slowing and inflation set to fall, interest rate cuts look highly likely next year, starting at the next policy meeting in March. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Fed’s lift-off cause a euro-zone nose-dive? There are reasons to think that the advent of tighter monetary policy in the US will not have a materially negative impact on the currency union. But there is no room for euro-zone policymakers to be... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank holds but will have to do more in 2016 The ECB’s timidity and strong domestic demand has allowed Sweden’s Riksbank to leave monetary policy unchanged today. But with headline inflation in Sweden still close to zero and policy likely to be... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank holds but will have to do more in 2016 The ECB’s timidity and strong domestic demand has allowed Sweden’s Riksbank to leave monetary policy unchanged today. But with headline inflation in Sweden still close to zero and policy likely to be... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Respite for the SNB, but fight against franc is not over With the ECB’s cautious action last week reducing upward pressure on the franc against the euro, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was able to leave policy on hold as expected today. But we still think... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
