Europe Economics Update Ending Iceland’s capital controls not yet a done deal The Icelandic Government today presented its long-awaited plan to lift its capital controls after more than six years. While a detailed programme for their removal is a welcome step, the controversial... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Debt relief is still the key obstacle to a Greek solution Greece and its creditors appear to be inching slowly towards each other on some elements of a potential deal to complete the current bailout. But deciding on and implementing the debt relief clearly... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s trio of economic tailwinds to fade Spain has benefitted from a trio of temporary tailwinds over the last year: the weaker euro, falling oil prices and a pause in fiscal austerity. So official forecasts may be wrong to assume that the... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Ending Iceland’s capital controls not yet a done deal The Icelandic Government today presented its long-awaited plan to lift its capital controls after more than six years. While a detailed programme for their removal is a welcome step, the controversial... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Danish elections won’t alter fiscal outlook Denmark’s forthcoming general election appears to be an increasingly close contest. But the consensus between the two major parties on many issues means that the result is unlikely to alter the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New Greek debt plan does not reduce exit risks Greece’s new plan for “debt management and investment-led growth” is a much-needed attempt to look beyond the completion of the current bailout and find a more permanent resolution to the crisis. But... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Danish elections won’t alter fiscal outlook Denmark’s forthcoming general election appears to be an increasingly close contest. But the consensus between the two major parties on many issues means that the result is unlikely to alter the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Forget the primary surplus, Greece’s debt is unsustainable The focus on the precise targets for the primary budget surplus in the negotiations between Greece and its creditors overlooks the fact that, unless the economy experiences a miracle, its debt ratio... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian households will be slow to feel recovery Italy’s economy looks set to grow again in Q2. But households there will remain under enormous pressure for the foreseeable future, which has implications for the strength of the recovery and support... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi sends dovish message that ECB may extend QE ECB President Mario Draghi gave a dovish message today that the Governing Council remains cautious over the strength of the euro-zone economic recovery and intends to implement its quantitative easing... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banking bailout funds no substitute for Greek debt relief The mooted reallocation of unused banking bailout funds could boost the amount of cash provided to Greece in a forthcoming deal with its creditors and hence buy it some valuable additional time. But... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) The latest euro-zone fiscal data showed that most of the peripheral countries made fiscal progress at the start of Q2, after a mixed performance in Q1. But Greece’s position is still looking... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal unlikely to tackle debt mountain Last night’s meeting between Greece’s creditors may have been an important step towards reaching a proposal to release the country’s final bailout payment. But the risk of failure is still high and... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) April’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that the region’s economic recovery will continue. But the continued lack of an agreement between Greece and its creditors poses a significant risk to the... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is the ECB to a Greek default? The ECB’s exposure to Greece is not huge and ultimately lies with the euro-zone governments that would have to recapitalise it. But a Greek default to the ECB would be a serious blow to the Bank’s... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank policy easing will need to be more aggressive The Riksbank’s third round of government bond buying got underway today. But we doubt that the programme will be enough to prevent the krona from appreciating and thereby depressing inflation. 21st May 2015 · 1 min read