Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Respite for the SNB, but fight against franc is not over With the ECB’s cautious action last week reducing upward pressure on the franc against the euro, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was able to leave policy on hold as expected today. But we still think... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Fed & oil prices bail out the ECB? The recent further fall in oil prices and imminent commencement of monetary tightening in the US are unlikely to compensate for the ECB’s disappointingly timid action at last week’s policy meeting. 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland holds rates but more hikes will be needed Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to keep its key interest rates unchanged was merely a reflection of the improvement in the short-term inflation outlook and a tighter policy stance will... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland holds rates but more hikes will be needed Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to keep its key interest rates unchanged was merely a reflection of the improvement in the short-term inflation outlook and a tighter policy stance will... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France to suffer in the long term from Front National’s win The unprecedented success of France’s far-right Front National (FN) in Sunday’s regional elections is a symbolic victory for the party’s protectionist and anti-immigration policies. While the initial... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB fails to live up to its own hype The European Central Bank’s failure to meet the expectations for further policy loosening fuelled by its own dovish signals has dented both its reputation for communication and, more importantly, the... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Current QE rules won’t stop the ECB An expansion of the QE programme tomorrow would probably require some changes to ECB rules. But we do not think that this will be enough to deter the Bank from implementing more stimulus. 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) The latest fiscal data provided further evidence that the peripheral countries are improving their budgetary positions. But with some of these countries planning to loosen the fiscal reins next year... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB to limit but not prevent franc appreciation The latest comments from Chairman Thomas Jordan suggest that the Swiss National Bank will act decisively to limit franc strength, including through further direct intervention in FX markets. But we... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Euro-zone monetary data showed some signs of improvement in October, but continue to point to low inflation and slow growth, strengthening the case for the ECB to increase its stimulus next week. 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to limit but not prevent franc appreciation The latest comments from Chairman Thomas Jordan suggest that the Swiss National Bank will act decisively to limit franc strength, including through further direct intervention in FX markets. But we... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Historic policy split to push euro below parity The prospect of a historically large divergence between US and euro-zone monetary policy looks set to push the euro below parity versus the US dollar for the first time since late 2002. 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek outlook improves but crisis still not over Greece has cleared another hurdle with the disbursement of its latest bailout tranche and funds to recapitalise its banks. But until its debt burden is properly addressed, its crisis is not over. 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is a housing bubble inflating again in Ireland? Comments from the outgoing governor of Ireland’s central bank that he “knows” that there won’t be another housing bubble smack of hubris. While there does not appear to be a bubble in the housing... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Paris attacks loosen Europe’s fiscal shackles? While fiscal authorities may tolerate increased security spending by some governments after the Paris terror attacks, suggestions that Europe’s budget rules will be swept aside are over the top. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Italy really been the biggest beneficiary of QE? Recent suggestions that Italy has gained the most from QE paint a pretty bleak picture of the policy’s effectiveness. As it happens, we are not convinced that Italy has been the biggest winner. Either... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
