Europe Economics Update Is French inflation about to take off? The strength of France’s economic recovery and improving conditions in the labour market suggest that core inflation will soon start to rise from its current depressed levels. But recent reforms will... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German pay demands won’t see inflation surge Recent pay demands by German trade unions may look like a sign that the economy’s strength is causing a surge in inflationary pressure. But the demands are very unlikely to be met in full. We expect a... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are bond markets too sanguine about Italy? Investors appear to be calm ahead of Italy’s forthcoming election, and we think that they are right not to panic. That said, the next government is likely to be more lax with fiscal policy, so we... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Euro-zone lending growth remained healthy in December, and with interest rates likely to rise only very slowly as the ECB normalises policy, bank lending looks set to continue supporting economic... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Patient ECB to move more slowly than markets think The ECB did not alter its forward guidance today, stressing that it will exercise patience and persistence when normalising policy and voicing concern about the strong euro. The currency’s further... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Housing risks to deter Norges Bank from raising rates While today’s Norges Bank announcement implies that it still expects to raise interest rates this autumn, we think that below-target inflation and weakness in the housing market will cause the Bank to... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to make of Italy’s centre-right policy programme Italy’s coalition of centre-right parties has proposed a raft of sweeping policies that would cause a blow-out in the budget deficit and possibly a significant shrinking of the workforce. But in... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s early reinvestments unlikely to delay rate rise While the Riksbank’s early bond reinvestments will make policy slightly more expansionary in the short term, the minutes of December’s meeting suggest that the decision to bring forward reinvestments... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Italian politicians really pull Italy out of the euro? Italy’s general election in March looks likely to produce a fragmented government with eurosceptic tendencies. We don’t think that it will pull Italy out of the euro-zone, but it may cause yields to... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Twenty-fourth time lucky for the Riksbank? After bringing its net asset purchases to a close last month, the Riksbank reiterated that it expects to raise interest rates in September this year. The Bank’s track record suggests that this... 4th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) Recent fiscal data revealed mixed performances by the euro-zone’s peripheral countries in the year to November. While Ireland and Portugal are on course to outperform their 2017 state budget balance... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does the Catalan election mean for the economy? The Catalan election result seems unlikely to prompt a major push for independence any time soon, so we doubt that it will have a material economic impact. As a result, the Spanish economy looks set... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currencies weaken despite hawkish central banks The Swedish and Norwegian central banks delivered fairly hawkish assessments of the outlook for monetary policy this month, but that did not stop their currencies from depreciating. Meanwhile, the... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank signals gradual shift towards tighter policy The Riksbank’s announcement that it will end its net asset purchases this month is the beginning of a shift towards tighter monetary policy in Sweden. We think that it will ultimately raise interest... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal’s bonds outperform Italy’s again in 2018? Government bond yields in Portugal started 2017 almost twice as high as those in Italy, but look set to end the year at around the same level. While we think that yields will edge up across the region... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dovish ECB to normalise policy very slowly While ECB President Draghi was upbeat about the economy at today’s press conference, he stated that the desire of some Governing Council members to signal an end to asset purchases is far from a... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
