Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway and Denmark Consumer Prices (Oct.) While we expect the Norges Bank to leave its key policy interest rate on hold at 1.50% into 2022, the persistence of above-target core inflation in Norway will ensure that it maintains a comparatively... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sept.) The decline in industrial production in September confirms that German manufacturers are still firmly in a recession. We expect this to continue well into next year, causing the economy as a whole to... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) & Final PMIs (Oct.) September’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest household consumption made a positive contribution to GDP growth in Q3. Meanwhile, the upward revision to October’s euro-zone Composite PMI still leaves... 6th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The confirmation this morning that Swiss inflation fell back into negative territory in October for the first time since November 2016 will reignite deflationary fears at the SNB and strengthen its... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q3) & Unemployment (Sep.), HICP (Oct.) Italy’s economy eked out only a small expansion in Q3, and it looks set to continue performing very poorly over the coming years. We think that it will fail to grow at all in 2020. 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3), Unemp. (Sept.) & HICP (Oct.) The slightly better-than-expected euro-zone Q3 GDP figure does not alter the fact that the region is expanding at only a very modest pace. What’s more, forward-looking indicators, along with the... 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct) & France GDP (Q3) The decline in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in October adds to the evidence that the economy started Q4 on weak footing. 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Oct.) October’s rise in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer was not enough to offset the previous month’s drop and the series still suggests that activity will remain subdued into 2020. 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) held steady at a very low level in October and, in line with the message from other surveys, showed that the German economy remained weak at the start of Q4. 25th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) October’s marginal rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI is fairly disappointing after September’s large fall and reinforces our view that economic growth in the currency union is at a virtual... 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q3 2019) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey shows that firms’ demand for credit is softening, adding to evidencethat the euro-zone economy will remain sluggish and in need of further policy support. 22nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s small rise in euro-zone industrial production is nowhere near enough to offset the previous two months’ declines, and so output in Q3 as a whole is likely to have fallen sharply. This... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish, Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Sep.) The persistent weakness of underlying inflation in Sweden serves as further proof, if needed, that the Riksbank will have to shift to a more dovish stance over the next six months or so. As a result... 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (August) The 0.3% increase in German industrial production comes as a relief, and a bit of a surprise, compared to the consensus forecast of 0.0% and our own expectation of a 1.0% fall, and given the poor... 8th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) The downward revision to September’s euro-zone PMI leaves it consistent with zero growth at the end of Q3, as the contraction in Germany’s economy appears to have accelerated and spread to the... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Sept.) The further decline in Swiss inflation, to just 0.1% in September, will stoke deflationary fears at the SNB and will only strengthen its resolve to resist upward pressure on the franc. 2nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
