Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) The decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) for January comes as a bit of a surprise, following good news from other surveys recently, but is consistent with our own view that economic growth... 27th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Flash PMIs (Jan.) The unchanged reading for the euro-zone’s Composite PMI in January leaves it still consistent with fairly slow GDP growth. We think that the economy will continue to grow at a meagre pace in 2020. 24th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2019) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey suggests that while consumer spending growth will maintain a steady pace, investment growth will weaken. It also implies that future TLTRO-III operations will be a... 21st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) The small rise in euro-zone industrial production in November was nowhere near enough to reverse the previous month’s decline, so Q4 is likely to have been yet another weak quarter for the region’s... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (2019) News that the German economy expanded by 0.6% last year, down from 1.5% in 2018, suggests that it narrowly avoided another contraction in Q4. Nonetheless, we think that GDP is unlikely to expand... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Dec.) The fact that Swedish inflation was unchanged in December came as a surprise to nobody. But given our view that underlying price pressures will continue to moderate, we are sticking to our non... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway and Denmark Consumer Prices (Dec.) We doubt that December’s decline in underlying inflation in Norway is the start of a trend. Given our view that the economy will regain momentum before long, the balance of risks is skewed towards... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) While the increase in industrial production in November comes as a bit of a relief, it merely reversed the decline in the previous month and still means that output is likely to have fallen again in... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Dec.) lthough the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged up again in December, the index still suggests that economic growth in the region was very weak at the end of last year. 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s inflation data will provide some relief to policymakers at the ECB, but we are still sceptical that core inflation is about to start on a sustained upward trend. In our view, the Bank’s... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Sweden Services PMI (Dec.) Having seen inflation fall into negative territory in the previous two months, the increase in Swiss CPI back into positive territory in December will be welcomed by policymakers. Nonetheless, with... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Final PMIs (Dec.) The euro-zone’s Composite PMI for December was revised up slightly, but taken together with the other available evidence, this still suggests that the economy grew by only 0.2% q/q in Q4. And Germany... 6th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s Ifo Business Climate Index was a bit better than expected, but it still suggests that the German economy is struggling to grow. We expect GDP growth to remain very weak at the start of next... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Flash PMIs (Dec.) and Hourly Labour Costs (Q3) The flash PMIs for December will disappoint those looking forward to a happier New Year. Indeed, they point to euro-zone GDP being almost flat in Q4 and a continued industrial recession. Looking... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production adds to the evidence that the sector’s troubles are far from over. We expect the sector to remain in recession at the start of next year. 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Nov.) The pick-up in Swedish inflation in November means that a rate hike by the Riksbank next week is all but guaranteed. But with surveys continuing to show that the economy is struggling, and core... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
