Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Mar.) While the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer registered its biggest monthly decline in five years in March, the fact that many of the responses to the survey component of the indicator predated the... 30th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Italian Consumer and Business Confidence (Mar.) Italy’s virus containment measures have already caused a huge contraction in activity. We had assumed a peak-to-trough decline in GDP of about 15%, but it could easily fall much further. 27th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German IAB Labour Market Barometer (Mar.) While the fall in the IAB Labour Market Barometer in March points to a modest increase in German unemployment in Q2, the fact that the survey largely pre-dates the ramp-up in containment measures... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Economic Tendency Indicator (Mar.) The broad-based drop in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator in March is consistent with the economy contracting by about 0.5-1.0% in Q1. Unfortunately, much worse is set to come in Q2. 26th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response France Bus. Conf. (Mar.) & German Cons. Conf. (Apr.) The largest-ever fall in French business confidence in March leaves the survey pointing to a severe slump in activity at the end of Q1. But the reality is almost certainly much worse than this. 26th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (Mar.) The Ifo survey gives a similar message to the PMI: the German economy is collapsing, with services bearing the brunt. And the situation is likely to get worse in April. 25th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) March’s slump in the euro-zone Composite PMI is so sharp that at any other time it would look like a spreadsheet error. But now it is all too believable, and April’s data could be even worse. 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The plunge in the EC euro-zone consumer confidence index in March – its largest fall on record – leaves it consistent with household spending plummeting. Given the continued fast spread of the virus... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) March’s German Ifo survey was very downbeat, but it may even understate the decline in business sentiment. While the ECB’s expansion of QE is a positive step towards containing the fallout from the... 19th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ZEW Survey (Mar.) The sharp drops in the ZEW measures of German and euro-zone investor sentiment in March came as no surprise, and point to sharp falls in GDP. Things are likely to get much worse in Q2, when we expect... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) The rise in German industrial production in January provides no relief for policymakers, who should now be braced for a new slump as Covid-19 spreads throughout Europe. Industrial output is likely to... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMIs (Feb.) The increase in euro-zone retail sales data in January suggests that household consumption picked up at the beginning of the year, but we suspect that spending will drop in Q2 as the Covid-19 virus... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Sweden Services PMI (Feb.) The return of deflation to Switzerland in February will only strengthen the policymakers’ resolve to prevent the franc from rising much further. Following yesterday’s emergency rate cut by the Fed... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s fall in inflation reflected the decline in energy prices as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. But if the virus starts to sap domestic demand, then core inflation may decline slightly in... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The increases in the manufacturing PMIs in February in Switzerland and the Nordics suggest that conditions in the industrial sector were improving before the surge in coronavirus cases in Europe... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden, Finland & Denmark GDP (Q4), Swiss KOF (Feb.) The Swedish economy ended last year on the back foot, and a combination of the rising threat from the coronavirus, weak growth in the neighbouring euro-zone, and persistently below-target inflation... 28th February 2020 · 2 mins read
