Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sept.) The release of a grim set of manufacturing PMIs for September this morning lends further support to our views that policymakers in Sweden and Switzerland will end up cutting interest rates deeper into... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug.) Euro-zone employment growth looks set to slow over the rest of this year, and remain subdued in 2020. So we expect wage growth to weaken too, eventually prompting the ECB to loosen policy again. 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Sep.) The renewed fall in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) adds to the evidence that the region’s economy slowed further in Q3. For now, the weakness is concentrated in the manufacturing... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) The small increase in the headline Ifo Business Climate Index for September leaves it at a very low level and does not alter the fact that Germany seems to have entered recession in Q3. Moreover, the... 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI supports our view that economic growth in the currency union has slowed in Q3. And with no sign that core inflation is rising, and the ECB’s latest... 23rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) The increase in nominal hourly labour cost growth to 2.7% in Q2 masks significant differences between countries and is partly due to a reduction in hours worked, rather than higher wages. We continue... 13th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (July) July’s small fall in euro-zone industrial production marked a soft start to Q3 and the surveys suggest that the downturn will continue, encouraging the ECB that it is right to loosen policy later... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish, Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Aug.) The weakness of Swedish inflation in August pours even more cold water over the Riksbank’s forecasts for an interest rate hike over the next six months. We are sticking to our view that policymakers... 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2, breakdown) & German IP (Jul.) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q2 confirmed that the economy slowed, with both consumption and net exports contributing to this deceleration. With household income set to lose pace and global... 6th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q2) The fact that the Swiss economy grew slightly faster than we had expected in Q2 is of limited solace given the sizeable downward revisions to the back data. The risks to our GDP forecast this year are... 5th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) The small upward revision to August’s euro-zone PMI leaves it still pointing to slow GDP growth at the start of H2. And the fall in retail sales in July suggests that consumption started Q3 on weak... 4th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Aug.) This morning’s release of Swiss inflation data for August confirmed that price pressures there remain almost entirely absent. It’s still a question of when, rather than whether, the SNB eases policy... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs from August indicate that the Swiss industrial sector is still feeling the pinch from the deep downturn in its German counterpart and the stronger franc, and add to the evidence... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) With headline and core inflation unchanged in August, at 1.0% and 0.9% respectively, and unemployment also unchanged at 7.5% in July, the scene is set for the ECB to loosen policy further. 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Finland & Denmark GDP (Q2), Swiss KOF (Aug.) Although today’s release of GDP data for Finland and Denmark shows that both economies grew solidly in Q2, we suspect that quarterly growth will slow in both in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, the... 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Aug.) August’s small increase in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) doesn’t change the big picture of a bleak outlook for the euro-zone economy, and nor does it alter our view that the ECB... 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
