Europe Data Response Ireland’s GDP (Q1 2019) Economic growth in Ireland appears to have slowed to little more than a crawl, which is likely to in part reflect concerns about the rising risk of a no-deal Brexit. We estimate that, if the UK left... 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jun.) While core inflation in Sweden edged up once again in June, we expect weak domestic demand to weigh on underlying price pressures over the second half of the year and into 2020. 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Jun.) The larger-than-expected fall in the headline Norwegian inflation rate in June is unlikely to change the Norges Bank’s hawkish bias. With core price pressures still running above target, it is set to... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) The small increase in output in May does not signal the end of the Germany’s manufacturing downturn. On the contrary, it now looks almost certain that production declined in Q2 overall, contributing... 8th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) May’s euro-zone retail sales data were weaker than expected and support our view that GDP growth in the bloc slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q2. Looking ahead, lower inflation is likely to raise households’... 4th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Jun.) Swiss inflation held steady at a very low rate in June and we expect it to fall to zero during the second half of the year on the back of the stronger franc. With deflationary fears set to come back... 4th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Final PMIs (Jun.) While the Composite PMIs for June were flat for Spain and edged up for Italy, the overall picture remains one of weak economic growth in the second quarter. And with price pressures remaining weak... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Unemployment (May), Manuf. PMI (Jun.) May’s euro-zone unemployment data showed that the steady recovery in the region’s labour market continued, despite the likely slowdown in GDP growth in Q2. But with business surveys remaining gloomy... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) The Swiss manufacturing PMI for June shows that conditions in the industrial sector have worsened going into H2, while the indicator from Sweden suggests that the economy contracted in the second... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) While headline HICP inflation came in unchanged in June, at 1.2%, the extent of the increase in services and core inflation was a bit of a surprise. But the increase in core inflation seems to have... 28th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Jun.) The modest decline in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer in June lends further support to our view that the Swiss economy will lose momentum over the course of this year. And with the franc likely to... 28th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (June) June’s sharp decline in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is consistent with our view that GDP growth in the currency union slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q2. It is also likely to strengthen ECB... 27th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) The slight improvement in the flash PMIs for June will not be enough to deflect the ECB from its new plan to ease policy within the coming months. We expect it to cut its deposit rate by 10bp in... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Apr.) Following March’s sharp fall, the euro-zone’s nominal goods trade surplus narrowed further in April. Given the softening of the export orders indices since the start of the year, we think that net... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q1) The small pick-up in total labour cost growth to 2.4% y/y in Q1 was concentrated in the economies which have been hit hardest by the recent downturn and where the labour market has already begun to... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May) While Swedish inflation surprised on the upside in May, we expect it to fall back as economic growth slows over the coming months. As a result, we are sticking to our dovish view that the Riksbank... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
