Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway and Denmark Consumer Prices (Nov.) While we expect the Norges Bank to leave its key policy interest rate on hold at 1.50% for the foreseeable future, the persistence of core price pressures means that the balance of risks is skewed... 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharp drop in production in October was driven by a slump in auto production and suggests that, far from bottoming out, Germany’s industrial contraction may even be getting worse. The economy... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3, breakdown) & Retail Sales (Oct.) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q3 confirmed that the economy remained sluggish, with net trade continuing to weigh on growth. And we doubt that things will get any better in the coming... 5th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Nov.) November’s final euro-zone PMI is consistent with very anaemic GDP growth in Q4 and the national indices point to continued weakness in both Germany and Italy, while France and Spain remain relative... 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The falls in the Swiss and Swedish manufacturing PMIs in November dash any hopes that the manufacturing sectors have gathered momentum in Q4. With the manufacturing recession in Germany set to rumble... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) November’s jump in inflation is unlikely to be the beginning of a sustained upward trend in price pressures. With employment growth slowing and slack in the labour market increasing, wage growth seems... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden, Finland & Denmark GDP (Q3), Swiss KOF (Nov.) The pick-up in Swedish GDP growth in Q3 means that a rate hike by the Riksbank at its next meeting is now pretty much a done deal. But if, as we expect, the economy slows next year, we think the Bank... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Nov.) Despite November’s small increase in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), the index suggests that the economy is unlikely to have gained pace in Q4. 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q3) The stronger-than-expected rise in quarterly Swiss GDP growth in Q3 was a bit of a relief and poses upside risks to our near-term forecast. But the outcome was skewed by weather-related effects and... 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) November’s Ifo Business Climate Index suggests that Q3’s small increase in German GDP was not the beginning of a recovery. We think that the economy will contract in the coming quarters. 25th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) & German GDP (Q3) The small decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI for November confirms that the economy is still struggling. One silver lining is that the pace at which German industrial output is contracting appears... 22nd November 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland Industrial Production (Q3 2019) The jump in annual Swiss industrial production growth in Q3 was skewed by base effects and masks weakness in those sectors most exposed to Germany. As Germany’s industrial recession looks set to drag... 21st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (second estimate), Employment (Q3) While the second estimate of Q3 GDP for the euro-zone was unchanged, and Germany narrowly avoided a technical recession, we think that the cyclical downturn in the region still has further to run. Our... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) Although euro-zone industrial production edged up in September, the sector still fared very poorly in Q3 overall and the business surveys suggest that the region’s industrial recession has further to... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Oct.) Despite October’s increase in CPIF inflation, underlying inflation in Sweden remains below target and serves as proof that the economy is not ready for the Riksbank’s planned rate hike in December... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway’s GDP (Q3) This morning’s release of Q3 GDP data from Norway confirms that the economy is faring much better than its Nordic peers. The economy looks set to lose some pace in the coming months but we do not... 12th November 2019 · 2 mins read
