Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Feb.) The rise in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for February adds to the evidence that the coronavirus has had little impact on the economy so far. But the survey was conducted before the... 27th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP Q4 2019 (Second Estimate) After flat-lining in Q4 last year, we suspect that the German economy will not grow in the first half of this year either, even if the effects of the coronavirus are contained. 25th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) The small increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in February will be a relief for those braced for a big hit from the coronavirus. However, the index is still below its level in December and... 24th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) The unexpected rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in February will have assuaged fears that the region’s economy has been adversely affected by supply-chain disruption as a result of the coronavirus... 21st February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland Industrial Production (Q4 2019) While pharmaceuticals output supported Swiss manufacturing again in Q4, conditions in the rest of the sector weakened at the end of last year. With the German industrial recession likely to drag on... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Swedish inflation in January may test the Riksbank’s resolve to keep policy unchanged. With subdued GDP growth likely to weigh on underlying inflation this year, we... 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP, Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Emp. (Q4) Given that the German economy stagnated in Q4 last year it will have come as a relief that GDP growth for the euro-zone as a whole was not revised down from +0.1% q/q. We think that Germany will... 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) The sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production in December came as no surprise after the very weak national data already published. The timelier surveys suggest that industry will continue to... 12th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway, Switz. & Denmark Consumer Prices (Jan.) The unexpected jump in underlying inflation in Norway lends support to our view that the Norges Bank is more likely to hike than to cut interest rates next. Meanwhile, the continued absence of price... 10th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) The 3.5% slump in industrial production in December flies in the face of the widely-held view that Germany’s manufacturing sector was on the mend at the end of last year. And even before the... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Jan.) December’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that household consumption growth slowed sharply in Q4. Meanwhile, the upward revision to January’s euro-zone Composite PMI implies that the... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The mixed set of manufacturing PMIs from January adds to signs that conditions in the Swedish industrial sector have turned the corner but indicate that activity in Switzerland remains stuck in a rut. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) & HICP (Jan.) The Q4 GDP and January consumer prices data published today support our view that euro-zone growth and inflation will be weaker this year than most expect. This underlies our forecast that the ECB... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German HICP (Jan.) The increase in Germany’s headline HICP inflation rate to 1.6% in January was a little smaller than most had expected and was driven by higher energy inflation. Underlying inflation seems to have... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jan.), Unemp. (Dec.) Despite increasing in January, the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator suggests that the economy is unlikely to have gained much momentum in Q1. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate, which fell to its... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Jan.) The surge in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer in January may yet prove to be a bit of a rogue reading. Nonetheless, it adds to signs from elsewhere in Europe that conditions for industrial firms have... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
