Energy Update WTI to trade at a premium to Brent by 2021 Earlier this week, the virus-related economic disruption and the prospect of a surge in OPEC+ supply pushed the Brent-WTI price spread near to zero. Although it has since rebounded, we think the... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update What higher OPEC+ supply means for the oil market OPEC+’s decision to abandon output constraint has been a factor behind the ongoing slump in oil prices. In our view, higher OPEC+ supply will weigh heavily on US shale output, prices and the risk... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Oil price slump - this time it is different Oil prices have crashed by about 40% since end-January owing to the coronavirus-related demand shock and the collapse of OPEC+ output restraint. Following previous oil price crashes (2008 and 2015-16)... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update It’s a war for market share, not price Against a backdrop of a coronavirus-related slump in demand, Saudi Arabia appears to have abandoned efforts to balance the oil market and is instead aiming to protect market share. Its pledge to... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update A Democrat could spark higher oil prices We think that, at least initially, the energy proposals of a Democratic President would support oil prices by curbing supply more than demand. 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Henry Hub to outperform amid COVID-19 outbreak While the price of US natural gas (Henry Hub) has slumped on the back of coronavirus-related concerns, it has fared better than natural gas prices elsewhere. And given the low exposure of US LNG... 21st February 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update LNG prices to remain in the doldrums LNG prices should recover from their current coronavirus-related lows by end-year. But given the significant oversupply in the market, prices are likely to remain historically weak. 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The oil market to flip into a deficit after Q1 The economic disruption caused by the coronavirus means that we now expect the oil market to be in a surplus in Q1 2020, as opposed to the deficit that we had previously envisioned. However, providing... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Is the coronavirus-led collapse in oil prices justified? Our analysis suggests that it is difficult to square the coronavirus-led sell-off in oil markets with the fundamentals. Instead, we think the move is rooted in a marked deterioration in investor... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Phase One deal no bonanza for commodities There has been a muted response in commodities markets to the signing of the Phase One trade deal between the US and China, perhaps because the good news was already priced in. That said, it may also... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Key energy forecasts for 2020 We think that oil prices will rise in 2020, as the market moves into a small deficit. In contrast, we expect natural gas prices to fall owing to strong supply growth and for this, in turn, to dampen... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices to rise irrespective of the risk premium Following the recent rise in US-Iran tensions, we estimate that the risk premium in the oil price briefly turned positive. After all, prices rose without there being any disruption to the physical... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update A few comments on the escalation in US-Iran tensions The oil price has jumped today on the back of the US assassination of a powerful Iranian military leader. Given the backdrop of improved investor sentiment in the oil market, prices could remain... 3rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update US commercial crude stocks to taper off in 2020 US commercial crude stocks remained high in 2019 owing principally to strong domestic production and increased Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases. Looking ahead, we think that a further rise... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Assessing the risks ESG factors pose to fossil fuels ESG rules won’t significantly deter investment in International Oil Companies (IOCs) or reduce fossil fuels production. Instead, output is likely to be guided by underlying oil prices, which we expect... 19th December 2019 · 3 mins read
