Energy Update End of stockpiling bonanza to hold back oil prices An often-overlooked factor supporting oil prices last year was the surge in stockpiling by China and India. But given the rebound in prices since then, and how much inventories have now risen, we... 2nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Weighing up the prospects for US oil production Higher prices and a backlog of uncompleted wells should ensure that US crude oil production edges up slowly over the next couple of years. But with many of the challenges facing the sector still... 27th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Key energy forecasts for 2021 We expect the prices of most energy commodity to rise in 2021, as demand revives in line with the global economic recovery. But coal prices are likely to fall back, as demand growth in major consuming... 11th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Saudi production cuts to boost prices If implemented, Saudi Arabia’s shock pledge to cut oil production by 1m bpd in February and March should offset much of the current lockdown-related weakness in global oil demand. Consequently, the... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Australian coal exports to hold up, despite tensions One of the latest casualties of heightened China-Australia geopolitical tensions is Australian coal exports. But we think that this will have limited implications for demand and prices as, for the... 22nd December 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update European gas prices to narrow gap with Asia next year We expect the unusually large discount in natural gas prices in Europe relative to those in Asia to shrink in the year ahead as the recovery in European demand gathers pace. 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Assessing the outlook for coal-gas switching in Europe The substitution of coal for natural gas in European power generation has reversed in recent months, but we doubt that this marks the start of a new trend. Instead, we think that gas-based power in... 11th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Reviewing the risks to our 2021 oil price forecast We forecast that a substantial pick-up in oil demand in the second half of next year amidst a backdrop of constrained supply will push Brent oil prices to around $60 per barrel by end-2021. That said... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Vaccine to push Brent price to $60 by end-2021 With widespread vaccination against COVID-19 now increasingly likely, we are revising up our oil demand forecasts for next year. And while OPEC+ will probably raise output a little faster in response... 27th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Emerging Asia oil demand to lag behind China The recovery in oil demand across Emerging Asia has been highly uneven. Oil consumption in China is already back to pre-virus levels, and we think it will rise further in the year ahead. But... 19th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Vaccine would aid oil price recovery, but risks remain News of a vaccine sent oil prices surging on Monday on the back of expectations that this will enable demand to recover more quickly than previously thought. But higher prices also increase the... 11th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Fresh lockdowns to weigh on European oil demand New national lockdowns in Europe have led us to revise down our oil demand forecasts for Q4. But the decline is likely to be much smaller than in Q2, not least because the economic hit will be less... 6th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Political gridlock will rein in any Green New Deal The apparent failure of the Democratic Party to win a ‘clean sweep’ in this week’s US election means that many of the policy initiatives and spending proposals made by presidential hopeful, Joe Biden... 6th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update No light at the end of the tunnel for thermal coal Despite a small revival in thermal coal prices ahead of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, we doubt it will be long before they start to test historic lows again. And if, as we expect, the COVID-19... 5th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Weighing up the relative prospects for energy & metals We think that energy commodities will claw back a bit of the ground that they have lost relative to industrial metals over the next two years or so, as some cyclical factors linked to COVID-19 which... 3rd November 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Asia LNG price rally to peter out in months ahead We suspect that the rapid recovery in Asia LNG prices will run out of road in the coming months, as supply returns and LNG cargoes are potentially diverted away from Europe. 3rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
