Energy Update China’s five-year plan is too barebones to move prices Commodity prices have largely shrugged off the conclusion of China’s Fifth Plenum and discussion of the 14 th Five-Year Plan (FYP). This is not so surprising as the main takeaway from the event is... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update US oil production may have peaked Although WTI crude oil prices have partially rebounded from their second-quarter nadir, oil production in the US has yet to recover. We suspect that low prices and producers struggling to source... 29th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Oil prices to tread water through to year-end Brent’s recent price drop to a two-month low shows the fragile nature of its price recovery. We think that an uneven recovery in demand, combined with the hangover of vast oil stocks accumulated in... 8th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Lagging supply to cause oil market deficit Global oil supply fell to a multi-year low in the second quarter, and recent data point to output having fallen further in the third quarter. With demand reviving, we think the oil market is now in a... 28th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update US natural gas price to rise a little A recovery in demand at a time of constrained supply will put downward pressure on US natural gas stocks and provide a small lift to prices in 2021. 25th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update LNG prices to continue to climb higher A combination of stronger demand and higher oil prices will support the spot price of Asian LNG over the next year and a half. 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Global oil demand to remain weak throughout 2021 We think that it will take over a year for oil product consumption to recover to pre-virus levels. This in turn will limit crude oil demand for the next 18 months or so and any near-term price gains. 11th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update US crude production to tread water later this year Weekly data for June and July point to a slight recovery in US crude oil production from May’s depressed level of 10m bpd. We expect output to remain subdued for the rest of 2020. 6th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Little to look forward to this year for US LNG exporters In recent months, cargoes of US LNG have been cancelled in record numbers as countries around the world struggle with the virus-related economic slump. After exports surged by nearly 60% y/y in the... 24th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Five key questions about the EU’s hydrogen strategy The recent launch of the European Commission’s hydrogen strategy marks a step forward in the region’s decarbonisation push in which it hopes to use ‘green’ hydrogen in place of fossil fuels. We answer... 10th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Libya will not determine prices The end of the port blockade in Libya should mean that the country’s oil production is restored, but we think that supply will be slow to return not least because of damage to facilities and weak... 3rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Taking a look at our oil price forecasts In light of the recent revision to our China economic growth forecast and our expectation that the rebound in equities has further to run, we have revisited our oil price forecasts for the year ahead... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update US gasoline demand will take time to fully recover Gasoline demand in the US is recovering from the coronavirus-related slump. However, we think that it will take some time before consumption fully returns to its pre-virus level. 22nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Launching our coal switching price indicator Our new coal switching price indicator (CSPI) shows that, in the UK and the Netherlands, power generation using natural gas is much more cost-effective than coal. While this has been true for a while... 18th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Renewables take the shine off European fossil fuels The virus-related economic disruption has already dealt a huge blow to fossil fuel usage in European power generation. What’s more, we suspect that the transition towards renewables may be accelerated... 16th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update OPEC+ is obviously worried about demand As expected, OPEC+ extended its 9.7m bpd production cut for another month (until end-July). Given that prices have rallied strongly in recent weeks, the group’s caution reflects the still-high level... 8th June 2020 · 2 mins read
