Commodities Update OPEC impasse: what next? The failure of OPEC+ to agree to new production quotas has created considerable uncertainty about the group’s oil production going forward. In this Update, we lay out three possible scenarios for OPEC... 6th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Rising production to take the sizzle out of Henry Hub Strong industrial demand and constrained domestic supply will support US natural gas prices throughout the remainder of this year. However, we expect that the average price will fall in 2022 in large... 28th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Oil demand to rise, but it won’t stop prices falling Global oil demand looks to have held up much better so far in 2021 than during 2020, despite a resurgence of COVID infections in many parts of the world. We expect strong oil demand growth to continue... 17th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Higher oil production to weigh on prices in 2022 Higher production from OPEC+ member states and in the Americas means that global oil production is set to rise sharply over the next eighteen months. This is the reason why we expect oil prices to... 16th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Restocking boost to LNG prices to fade soon After rising (and falling) sharply at the start of the year, Asia LNG prices have started to push higher again recently. This latest rise seems to have been driven by a rebuilding of stocks, which... 9th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Strong demand to keep the Pacific coal price high The price of Pacific coal has surged to just over $100 per tonne for the first time since 2019. We think that the price will remain elevated for the rest of this year in large part owing to strong... 25th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Deal or no deal, Iran’s oil output set to rise this year A revival of the nuclear deal with Iran would pave the way for sanctions to be lifted, boosting the country’s oil production and weighing on prices. By contrast, while we still expect Iranian output... 17th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Brent-WTI price spread likely to remain narrow We think that the absence of pipeline capacity constraints, a strong recovery in US oil demand, and increased output from OPEC+ members will all help to ensure that the Brent-WTI price spread remains... 5th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Weaker European demand won’t derail our oil forecast While we have revised down our oil price forecast for Q2 and Q3 this year in response to the OPEC+ decision to ease production cuts, we still think a rebound in global demand will help push oil prices... 8th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Higher OPEC+ production to limit oil price gains The recent decision by OPEC+ to increase its oil production quotas and the prospect of higher Iranian output point to a smaller global oil market deficit this year than we had previously envisaged... 7th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Five key questions on the EU’s carbon border tax Later this year, the European Commission is expected to provide draft details on how the EU will introduce and implement a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM, often dubbed a ‘carbon border tax’)... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Surge in US oil production still seems very unlikely Despite the ongoing rise in the number of rigs actively drilling for oil, we continue to expect a lacklustre recovery in US oil production over the next couple of years. 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Supply constraint to support prices in the near term The deeper-than-expected production cuts by most OPEC+ member states and a revival in global demand means that the oil market is now likely to be in a bigger deficit than we had previously envisaged... 12th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Oil to miss out on the next commodity supercycle Slower demand growth and an abundance of supply will limit gains in oil prices over the long term, which we think will ultimately prevent oil from featuring in the next commodity supercycle. Join us... 4th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Biden’s foreign policy and its energy market impact President Biden’s stance regarding international climate policy and the Iranian nuclear deal is very different from Donald Trump’s, but we are sceptical that he will be able to enact any significant... 25th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices to make further gains Recent market moves have led us to revise up our end-2021 oil price forecast. But our story remains the same: one of resurgent demand later this year at a time of constrained supply. 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
