Energy Update Oversupply to act as a lid on the price of LNG The recent plunge in the spot price of Asia liquefied natural gas (LNG) in part reflects warmer-than average winter temperatures, but there is a more structural problem in the form of excess supply... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Future SPR buying to have little impact on oil prices We estimate that strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) in India and China are at record highs and will continue to increase in the years ahead. In contrast, we think that US reserves will slide... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Are there lessons to be learnt from 2012-13? The spike in oil prices in 2018 followed a similar pattern to the spike in 2012. As such, the price trend in 2012-13 can perhaps tell us something about the likely direction of prices this year. To be... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil stocks are unlikely to fall sharply in 2019 The guiding principle behind OPEC’s recent production cuts is to reduce global oil stocks and to put prices on a firmer footing. In the near term, stocks may decline given that OPEC is now producing... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update LNG price slump is not all about the weather The plunge in the spot LNG price is in large part the result of a mild northern hemisphere winter. As such, prices may rebound if the weather normalises, but rapid growth in supply will prevent... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil price rally to prove fleeting The recent surge in the oil price reflects concerns about a supply shortfall, on the back of sharply lower production in some key OPEC producers. That said, there are already signs that growth in... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Hard to be positive on global oil demand Slower economic growth in the two largest oil consumers will weigh on oil demand this year and is a key reason why we expect prices to fall, despite lower supply. Admittedly, China is likely to... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update European coal prices to remain grounded Weaker demand, the ongoing transition away from coal and rising supply from Russia will lead to lower European coal prices in 2019. We forecast that the price of Rotterdam coal will fall from $80 per... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update US sanctions PDVSA, next few months critical The decision by the US to impose sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, will lead to a large loss of export earnings in the next few months. If Maduro can cling on to power during... 29th January 2019 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Too soon to write off Venezuela The received wisdom in the oil market is that the latest political turmoil in Venezuela is positive for oil prices as it could lead to further disruptions to the country’s oil supply. But a change of... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update LNG prices to follow coal and oil downwards Rising global supply, softer demand and lower prices of other forms of energy will weigh on the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2019. 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update A downward revision to the 2019 oil price forecast Changes to our wider global macroeconomic and market forecasts have prompted us to re-assess the outlook for oil prices. We now expect slower growth in global demand and rising US production to return... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Coal prices to run out of steam Slower economic growth in China, increasing production and the continuing shift towards natural gas and renewable energy for power generation will weigh on the price of coal in 2019. 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slower growth in demand to weigh on oil prices We expect a combination of slower global GDP growth and persistent rises in US shale output to lead to lower oil prices in 2019. Our end-2019 forecast for Brent is now $55 per barrel ($60 previously). 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi likely to push ahead with modest oil output cut The upcoming OPEC meeting is likely to result in Saudi Arabia agreeing to reduce its oil output. But we think that any cut will be at the more modest end of the spectrum as the authorities balance the... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update A lot of hot air in the US natural gas market We expect that the combination of low stocks and strong demand growth will ensure that the average price of US natural gas will be higher in 2019 than in 2018, despite steadily increasing supply. 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
