Energy Update US gasoline demand to fall even with CAFE changes If enacted, we estimate that the Trump Administration’s reported proposals for altering fuel efficiency standards in automobiles will mean that US gasoline consumption will be around 0.3m bpd higher... 18th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Iranian oil output at low risk of long-term decline Since the imposition of US sanctions in May 2018, Iranian oil production has fallen by nearly 45%. For our part, we think that output would recover quickly if sanctions were lifted. Moreover, we see... 27th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update The palm oil price rally has further to run Palm oil prices have soared recently in part because of unfavourable weather, which has clouded the outlook for supply. At the same time, we think that demand from the world’s top consumers is set to... 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Henry Hub to make modest gains next year Despite steadily rising supply, strong demand growth and expanding export opportunities should ensure that the average price of US natural gas (Henry Hub) will be higher in 2020 than 2019. 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Aramco IPO won’t have a big impact on the oil market We think that the forthcoming Saudi Aramco IPO is unlikely to have much of an impact on Saudi Arabia’s oil policy or on global oil prices either now, or in the future. Instead, Saudi output in the... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Three possible scenarios involving Nordstream 2 Recent construction delays to Nordstream 2 mean that the Russia-EU gas pipeline is likely to miss its scheduled completion date of December 2019. While we suspect that surging supplies of LNG from the... 25th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Global crude demand to trough in early 2020 Subdued global economic activity will weigh on oil demand next year. That said, we expect GDP growth to gradually pick up over the course of the year, and new International Maritime Organization rules... 16th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Turning a little more positive on oil prices in 2020 We expect that global oil supply will remain constrained in 2020. But we also forecast somewhat stronger growth in demand next year and a pick-up in risk appetite on the back of monetary easing. As a... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Revising down our 2020 global oil supply forecast Lower production in Saudi Arabia and the lower-than-expected US output growth have led us to revise down our global oil supply growth estimates. We now expect the market surplus to be smaller than we... 23rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
Energy Update The US to become a net oil exporter in 2021 US production of light crude oil will continue to grow in the coming years, and we expect that this will lead to the US becoming a net exporter of crude oil by 2021. 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Three possible outcomes from the Aramco attack Given the uncertainty about the impact on supply of this weekend’s attack on Saudi Aramco, we are not changing our oil price forecasts yet. However, in this Update, we outline three possible scenarios... 16th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Grim outlook for Pacific coal prices The usual seasonal uplift in demand should support the price of Pacific coal until end-2019. However, we expect average prices to fall in the years ahead owing in large part to weaker demand prospects... 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update The EU’s new energy policy will be no game-changer The policies of the next European Commission are likely to speed up the EU’s ongoing transition towards a greener energy future. However, its impact will probably not live up to expectations. 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Trade escalation and G7 do not change our oil view While the US-China trade war has escalated, we had already expected the two countries’ dispute to deepen. Meanwhile, although a thawing of US-Iran relations could mean a return to the market of... 27th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Any UK petroleum reserve sell-off would be small beer A no deal Brexit later this year could mean that the UK government decides to substantially reduce its strategic reserves of petroleum products. But even after a reduction, the UK’s reserves should... 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Brent-WTI price spread to remain low The dramatic narrowing of the spread between the prices of Brent and WTI oil in the last month, reflects a structural change in the market as logistical bottlenecks in the US are being resolved. As... 20th August 2019 · 2 mins read
