Energy Update Little respite for LNG prices likely before 2021 The raft of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in the works suggests that the downward pressure on prices from surging global supply will continue this year and next. But with demand growth set to... 13th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update A flood of LNG to keep a lid on EU natural gas prices In this Update we are launching our coverage of the European TTF natural gas price. In short, we think that surging global supply of liquefied natural gas will keep EU markets amply supplied over the... 1st August 2019 · 4 mins read
Energy Update OPEC+ will not succeed in lowering crude stocks We think that the OPEC+ production cuts will fail to reduce global crude stocks. Instead, we expect soft demand growth and rising global supply, particularly from the US, to push stocks higher in the... 12th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Assessing the risk to oil supply of US-Iran tensions Concerns about a shortfall in global oil supply have resurfaced as a result of the escalation in geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran. But we think there are four key reasons why the risk to supply... 25th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Implications for oil of an escalation in the trade war We have now incorporated an escalation in the US-China trade war into our global economic forecasts. As it happens, we think that the negative impact on global GDP growth will be relatively contained... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent-WTI spread to narrow in 2019 The relative scarcity of Brent crude and an abundance of WTI have led to a persistently wide price spread between the two oils. However, we expect enhanced pipeline capacity in the US and somewhat... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Extension of OPEC cuts not an open-and-shut case Market moves in the wake of this weekend’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting suggest that some investors expect OPEC to roll over output cuts when they expire in June. In contrast... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update China’s tariff is a major setback for US LNG China’s decision to raise its tariff on US LNG imports from 10% to 25% from 1st June effectively rules the US out of the world’s second-largest, and fastest-growing, market. It will also weigh on spot... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Why lower US natural gas stocks are here to stay US natural gas stocks have remained stubbornly low in recent years. We think that this reflects a new norm in the natural gas market which is eroding the impact of stock levels on prices. 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Hard to be positive on Pacific coal A stabilisation of economic growth in China should support the price of Pacific coal in 2019, but in the longer term we expect prices to slide as demand softens and supply increases. 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A higher oil price forecast, but big picture unchanged We retain our long-held view that the price of oil will fall this year owing to weak global growth, further gains in US oil output and a rise in investor risk aversion. However, the scale of recent... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update What does oil at $70 mean for our price forecast? Most of the excess supply in the oil market has now disappeared as a result of the voluntary and involuntary output cuts, notably by OPEC member states. However, we expect higher prices to encourage... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oversupply to act as a lid on the price of LNG The recent plunge in the spot price of Asia liquefied natural gas (LNG) in part reflects warmer-than average winter temperatures, but there is a more structural problem in the form of excess supply... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Future SPR buying to have little impact on oil prices We estimate that strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) in India and China are at record highs and will continue to increase in the years ahead. In contrast, we think that US reserves will slide... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Are there lessons to be learnt from 2012-13? The spike in oil prices in 2018 followed a similar pattern to the spike in 2012. As such, the price trend in 2012-13 can perhaps tell us something about the likely direction of prices this year. To be... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil stocks are unlikely to fall sharply in 2019 The guiding principle behind OPEC’s recent production cuts is to reduce global oil stocks and to put prices on a firmer footing. In the near term, stocks may decline given that OPEC is now producing... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
